NFL Declines Supplemental Draft, Rejects Brendan Sorsby’s Petition
The league cited timing and integrity concerns, while Sorsby’s attorney said the decision violates the collective bargaining agreement. Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby will not enter the NFL through a supplemental draft after the league elected not to hold the event in 2026, citing timing and integrity concerns tied to the gambling violations that ended […] The post NFL Declines Supplemental Draft, Rejects Brendan Sorsby’s Petition appeared first on Gambling Insider.
The league cited timing and integrity concerns, while Sorsby’s attorney said the decision violates the collective bargaining agreement. Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby will not enter the NFL through a supplemental draft after the league elected not to hold the event in 2026, citing timing and integrity concerns tied to the gambling violations that ended his college career. In a June 23 letter, the league informed Sorsby that it had decided not to hold a supplemental draft this year and had rejected his petition for special eligibility. The NFL said that under its collective bargaining agreement, the league retains discretion over whether to hold a supplemental draft in a given year. According to the letter, the NFL had no plans to conduct one until it received Sorsby’s application. The last time the league held one was in 2019. Your Petition—filed three business days before the deadline, without any supporting information or documentation, and only after abandoning your recent litigation efforts to avoid NCAA sanctions—does not provide a basis for the League to alter those plans,” the NFL wrote. The decision follows months of controversy surrounding Sorsby’s gambling violations. The quarterback admitted to placing thousands of wagers on college and professional sports totaling more than $90,000. The NCAA ultimately ruled him permanently ineligible, citing a pattern of gambling activity across multiple schools. According to the NFL’s letter, the league did not have the complete NCAA investigative record. However, the league noted that available information indicates that Sorsby wagered on his own team and teammates and used intermediary accounts to place bets on his behalf. The NFL also said the allegations raised issues directly tied to its integrity policies. The issues presented by your Petition are too significant, and too closely tied to the League’s core integrity interests, to permit meaningful review within the timeline presented,” the letter stated. An NFL source told ESPN that Sorsby’s application raised “core of the game integrity issues.” NFL Criticizes Lack of Accountability The NFL also questioned Sorsby’s handling of the NCAA sanctions. The letter stated that Sorsby’s petition failed to address the underlying conduct that led to his suspension. Additionally, the petition did not demonstrate how he would comply with league integrity rules going forward. “Your Petition does not address these matters. Nor does it demonstrate accountability for your conduct or indicate whether, or how, you would adhere to the League’s rules and policies governing the integrity of competition,” the NFL wrote. League officials told ESPN they were concerned that conducting a supplemental draft review so close to training camp would create unnecessary distractions for teams. Legal Challenge May Continue Sorsby’s attorney, Jeffrey Kessler, sharply disputed the league’s characterization of the process and indicated that additional action may follow. The response from the League was that all that was required was a short application,” Kessler told ESPN. He argued that the NFL never requested additional documentation and never suggested that filing near the deadline would affect consideration of the petition. Kessler called the decision “a violation of the CBA and the law” and said the matter would be pursued through the NFL Players Association. The NFL Players Association has not indicated whether it believes grounds exist for a challenge. The latest developments come weeks after Sorsby abandoned his lawsuit against the NCAA despite obtaining a temporary injunction that would have allowed him to play a final collegiate season at Texas Tech. Instead, Sorsby opted to pursue the supplemental draft route. With no supplemental draft scheduled, the league encouraged him to prepare for possible entry through the 2027 NFL Draft. As Commissioner Goodell has emphasized, participation in the NFL is a privilege that carries with it significant responsibilities, including accountability,” the league wrote. “By all accounts, you are a talented player with the potential for future success. We encourage you to focus on preparing for possible entry into the NFL through the 2027 NFL Annual Draft.” The post NFL Declines Supplemental Draft, Rejects Brendan Sorsby’s Petition appeared first on Gambling Insider.
Zuckerberg Bets on “Arena” as Meta Explores Prediction Markets
Prediction markets may soon face a competitor with something neither Kalshi nor Polymarket possesses: direct access to billions of users worldwide. Mark Zuckerberg has reportedly directed a small team to build a standalone smartphone app modeled on prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, potentially giving Meta a foothold in one of the fastest-growing segments of […] The post Zuckerberg Bets on “Arena” as Meta Explores Prediction Markets appeared first on Gambling Insider.
Prediction markets may soon face a competitor with something neither Kalshi nor Polymarket possesses: direct access to billions of users worldwide. Mark Zuckerberg has reportedly directed a small team to build a standalone smartphone app modeled on prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, potentially giving Meta a foothold in one of the fastest-growing segments of online wagering. The experimental project, known internally as “Arena,” would initially allow users to forecast real-world outcomes using a points-based system rather than real-money wagers. The New York Times reported Tuesday that two employees familiar with the plans described the app as a top priority inside the company. By avoiding real-money wagering at launch, Meta could sidestep many of the regulatory battles currently facing prediction market operators in the U.S. It would also avoid restrictions that have targeted the sector in jurisdictions such as Europe and India. Unlike existing prediction market operators, Meta would not need to build an audience from scratch. Meta plans to leverage existing audiences on Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp to promote Arena upon launch. These apps collectively reach more than 3.5 billion daily active users. Meta Returns to Prediction Markets This isn’t the first time Meta has attempted to enter the prediction market space. It launched Forecast in 2020, an app that allowed users to predict unfolding events using a points system. However, Meta shut it down in 2022. The prediction market sector has exploded over the past couple of years. The combined monthly trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket reached roughly $24 billion in April. That’s nearly five times higher than the $5 billion in September 2025. In April, investment firm Bernstein estimated that the sector could reach $1 trillion in annual volume by 2030. Arena would fit nicely into Meta’s existing games footprint, such as the instant and social games that Facebook offers. Meta advertising rules also allow promotion for social casinos, provided players can’t win money or anything of monetary value. The company allows real-money gambling ads too, but only from authorized advertisers and only when those advertisers have legal permission to operate in a given market. Meta’s Gambling Advertisment Scrutiny Arena would arrive as Meta continues to face scrutiny over gambling-related content appearing across its platforms. A Reuters investigation in November 2025 reported that Meta projected roughly 10% of its 2024 revenue, about $16 billion, came from ads for scams and banned goods. This category includes unlicensed online casinos. According to that reporting, Meta’s automated systems would flag an advertiser only when the company’s models assigned at least 95% odds of fraud. Regulators in France, the U.K., Malaysia, and Brazil have all pressed Meta over unlicensed gambling promotions. Most recently, a Netherlands trade group sued the company and filed a complaint with the European Commission over what it alleges are Meta’s failures to prevent large-scale promotion of illegal gambling operators on Facebook and Instagram. The group claims that illegal operators accounted for over 95% of the gambling ads targeting Dutch people on Meta platforms. Prediction Markets Face Regulatory Uncertainty Arena would also launch into a very unsettled regulatory environment. The CFTC proposed rules earlier this month that would bar contracts tied to war, assassinations, and terrorism. However, the rules leave unresolved broader questions surrounding sports-event contracts. Several states have taken legal action arguing that prediction markets constitute gambling products that should fall under state regulatory authority. The cases remain pending, with industry observers suggesting the issue could ultimately reach the Supreme Court. Whether Arena remains a free-to-play forecasting product or eventually expands into real-money markets may depend in part on how that legal and regulatory battle unfolds. The post Zuckerberg Bets on “Arena” as Meta Explores Prediction Markets appeared first on Gambling Insider.
Lumbee Tribe Rejects Casino Amendment, Stalling North Carolina Gaming Plans
The vote halts a proposed casino development along Interstate 95 less than a year after the tribe secured federal recognition. Members of the Lumbee Tribe of North Carolina voted Tuesday to reject a constitutional amendment viewed as a key step toward developing a tribal casino resort, dealing a setback to tribal leaders’ gaming plans. According […] The post Lumbee Tribe Rejects Casino Amendment, Stalling North Carolina Gaming Plans appeared first on Gambling Insider.
The vote halts a proposed casino development along Interstate 95 less than a year after the tribe secured federal recognition. Members of the Lumbee Tribe of North Carolina voted Tuesday to reject a constitutional amendment viewed as a key step toward developing a tribal casino resort, dealing a setback to tribal leaders’ gaming plans. According to unofficial results, approximately 62% of voters opposed the amendment. More than 9,000 tribal members participated in the election. The vote came less than a year after the Lumbee Tribe became the nation’s 575th federally recognized tribe in December 2025. In May, tribal leadership voted 17-2 to amend its governing constitution. The tribe had already purchased 241 acres near Interstate 95 in southern Robeson County and unveiled plans for a casino resort development on the site. In a Facebook statement following the vote, Tribal Chairman John Lowery expressed disappointment with the outcome. A majority of the Lumbee people have spoken, and they have said no to progress and have decided to stay with the status quo,” Lowery said. Casino Project Promised Jobs and Economic Development Tribal leaders viewed the casino resort as transformational for one of North Carolina’s most economically challenged regions. The development plans included a casino, hotels, restaurants, retail space, a convention center, and a golf course. Supporters projected the project would create up to 3,500 full-time jobs, with salaries beginning at approximately $45,000 annually. The tribe purchased the land shortly after receiving recognition and promoted the development as a potential source of funding for housing, healthcare, education, and public safety programs. Supporters also argued the tribe needed to move quickly as neighboring states continue expanding gaming opportunities. Virginia has opened multiple commercial casinos in recent years. Meanwhile, South Carolina lawmakers have debated proposals that would allow casino development along the I-95 corridor. Lowery has warned that competing gaming developments could emerge before the Lumbee could establish their own operation. Governance Concerns Divided Tribal Members Much of the debate centered on the amendment itself rather than gaming alone. Critics argued the proposal would have eliminated the constitution’s referendum requirement for gaming, reducing direct member oversight. That, they argue, would give the chairperson too much power. The amendment would have formally authorized the chairperson to negotiate gaming compacts with the state and nominate members to gaming and regulatory boards, subject to approval by the tribal council. It also would have codified the council’s authority to enact gaming ordinances consistent with federal law. Opponents, including members of the group Lumbees United for Accountability, argued that the proposal went against the tribe’s constitution. Tribal leaders countered that the constitutional amendment was necessary to address inconsistencies in the tribe’s governing documents and avoid referendum participation requirements that could be difficult to satisfy. Others objected to casino gambling on moral or religious grounds. In a statement, elders at CrossWay Church of Pembroke argued that economic benefits should not outweigh concerns about gambling’s social impacts. Some opponents also questioned the speed of the gaming push following federal recognition. Former North Carolina state representative Charles Graham, a member of the tribe, argued the tribe should have taken more time before pursuing a casino project. “I think we should have celebrated federal recognition first,” Graham said as reported by The Assembly. To be honest, the ink on the federal legislation had not dried.” Future Gaming Efforts Remain Possible Although the vote rejects the current proposal, it does not permanently close the door on future gambling expansion. Lowery said he would not pursue the issue again during the remaining 18 months of his term as chairman. However, tribal leaders could revisit gaming in the future through another constitutional amendment or by a referendum as outlined in the tribe’s constitution. The post Lumbee Tribe Rejects Casino Amendment, Stalling North Carolina Gaming Plans appeared first on Gambling Insider.
CFTC Sues Kentucky, Kalshi Challenges Illinois After States Move Against Prediction Markets
The filings target the states’ recently enacted measures to tax certain prediction market contracts. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sued Kentucky on Monday following the state’s recent enforcement actions against Kalshi and Polymarket. Separately, Kalshi filed suit against Illinois after lawmakers enacted a measure that taxes and regulates sports-event contracts. Both lawsuits argue that […] The post CFTC Sues Kentucky, Kalshi Challenges Illinois After States Move Against Prediction Markets appeared first on Gambling Insider.
The filings target the states’ recently enacted measures to tax certain prediction market contracts. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sued Kentucky on Monday following the state’s recent enforcement actions against Kalshi and Polymarket. Separately, Kalshi filed suit against Illinois after lawmakers enacted a measure that taxes and regulates sports-event contracts. Both lawsuits argue that the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) grants the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts traded on federally regulated designated contract markets (DCMs), preempting state gambling laws. The filings further expand the prediction market industry’s growing conflict with state regulators. Kentucky joins eight other states sued by the CFTC, but becomes the first Republican-led jurisdiction to be challenged by the agency. CFTC Challenges Kentucky’s Lawsuits, Prediction Market Tax In its complaint, the CFTC argued that Kentucky’s recent enforcement actions and prediction market tax unlawfully interfere with federally regulated exchanges. The agency challenged lawsuits filed by Kentucky Attorney General Russell Coleman against Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Webull. Those lawsuits alleged that the companies were facilitating unauthorized sports wagering and violating Kentucky consumer protection laws. The complaint calls the lawsuits “the latest entries in Kentucky’s campaign to banish prediction markets from within their borders.” It also challenges the state’s newly enacted prediction market tax. Kentucky recently enacted House Bill 757, which imposes a 14.25% tax on prediction market revenue. Lawmakers also enacted House Bill 904, which prohibits licensed sportsbooks from partnering with prediction market platforms beginning July 15. The CFTC complaint argues that the tax effectively makes it impossible for federally regulated exchanges to operate in Kentucky. It invokes the Supreme Court’s longstanding observation that “the power to tax involves the power to destroy.” Kalshi Challenges Illinois Prediction Market Tax The same day, Kalshi filed a lawsuit against Illinois. The lawsuit targets Senate Bill 3019, recently enacted as part of Illinois’ fiscal year 2027 budget package. The law classifies sports-event contracts offered on prediction markets as sports wagering, creates a tax framework, and requires operators to obtain state licenses. According to Kalshi, the law places the company in an impossible position. Beginning July 1, the company would either need to stop offering sports-event contracts to Illinois residents or submit to a state licensing framework that conflicts with federal requirements governing designated contract markets. Kalshi argued that the law directly conflicts with CFTC regulations requiring federally regulated exchanges to provide nationwide access to their markets. The complaint states that Senate Bill 3019 “is preempted several times over.” Kalshi argues that the measure conflicts with CEA’s “exclusive jurisdiction” provision and intrudes into the field of exchange-traded derivatives that Congress has reserved entirely for the federal government. Further, Kalshi says it forces regulated exchanges to choose between violating federal or state law. The company further noted that the CFTC has already filed a separate lawsuit against Illinois. Last week, the agency amended its suit to directly challenge Senate Bill 3019. The post CFTC Sues Kentucky, Kalshi Challenges Illinois After States Move Against Prediction Markets appeared first on Gambling Insider.
Kalshi Retreats From India While European Regulators Target Prediction Markets
After courting Indian users as part of a global expansion strategy, Kalshi has quietly withdrawn from the market amid a broader regulatory crackdown on prediction platforms. Kalshi has updated its member agreement to block users in India from trading event contracts. The prediction markets company changed its member agreement dated June 17. Anyone who is […] The post Kalshi Retreats From India While European Regulators Target Prediction Markets appeared first on Gambling Insider.
After courting Indian users as part of a global expansion strategy, Kalshi has quietly withdrawn from the market amid a broader regulatory crackdown on prediction platforms. Kalshi has updated its member agreement to block users in India from trading event contracts. The prediction markets company changed its member agreement dated June 17. Anyone who is domiciled, organized in, or located in the country can no longer trade on the platform. The move marks a reversal from Kalshi’s October 2025 international expansion push, when the company announced plans to serve users in more than 140 countries, including India. The addition brings Kalshi’s list of restricted jurisdictions to 55 countries and territories. Kalshi has sought to position itself as a compliance- and regulation-focused operator in an otherwise unconstrained sector. The decision isn’t surprising, as its U.S. federal CFTC license doesn’t affect how other regulators apply their national laws. From Expansion to Exit The June 17 amendment makes India a restricted jurisdiction under Kalshi’s member agreement, barring users who are domiciled, organized, or located in the country from accessing event contract trading. The agreement also allows Kalshi to update the restricted-jurisdiction list in response to changes in legal, regulatory, or business conditions. The most notable part of the update is how long Kalshi held out before making it. The company was still onboarding Indian customers as recently as mid-May. Its legal counsel, Valeria Vouterakou, said at the time that Kalshi had contacted the Indian government and had not received an order to shut down. She added that the platform would comply with any government requests “should they make them.” Just a few weeks later, the company could no longer ignore the requests and the enforcement action behind them. How India Closed the Door India’s Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025 led to a change in stance. The law, which came into effect on May 1, significantly expanded restrictions on online gambling. Legal analysts have broadly concluded that prediction markets fall within their scope. The statute carries criminal exposures, including possible imprisonment, for anyone who facilitates, promotes, or finances illegal online gambling. India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, MeitY, issued an advisory on April 25, warning VPN providers and other intermediaries that they must not enable access to blocked prediction market sites and betting platforms, citing “Polymarket and a few other similar sites.” Polymarket fell first, as MeitY subsequently blocked the market around May 21. Kalshi’s withdrawal followed weeks later, marking a sharp reversal of its October 2025 announcement that it was expanding into 140+ countries, including plans to serve customers in China and India. The new online gaming ban in India largely scuppered these plans. It also pushed other gambling operators to withdraw, including Flutter Entertainment, which stopped all paid contests in its skill gaming subsidiary Junglee. That business was set to generate about $200 million in revenue for 2026. Europe Following Suit India’s clampdown is the latest move in an increasingly global pattern. Similar concerns are now emerging across Europe. Gambling regulators from nine European countries signed a joint declaration on June 17, committing to act together against prediction markets operating without a local license. Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland signed the declaration. This is the first time European regulators have moved in such a coordinated fashion. The declaration came during the opening days of the FIFA World Cup, which attracts huge betting interest. The regulators listed concerns such as the lack of account restriction tools, including betting or time limits, and light identity and age checks; the risk of insider trading; and the prospect of gambling harm among younger users. France’s Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) led the European charge and warned that these platforms can create “a significant addictive cycle.” The regulators urged sports federations, leagues, and clubs to verify the status of any prediction market operator before signing commercial deals. They also laid out enforcement tools they could use, including formal warnings, fines, ad restrictions, and internet service provider-level blocking. Countries like Spain, France, the Netherlands, and Belgium already block Polymarket and Kalshi through ISPs. The amendment leaves India among 55 jurisdictions where Kalshi users are prohibited from trading event contracts, while regulators across Europe continue to explore coordinated enforcement against unlicensed prediction market operators. The post Kalshi Retreats From India While European Regulators Target Prediction Markets appeared first on Gambling Insider.
Dutch Gambling Trade Group Sues Meta Over Illegal Gambling Ads, Files EU Complaint
The trade body alleges Facebook and Instagram have become major distribution channels for illegal gambling advertisements and are helping fuel the growth of the Dutch black market. Dutch gambling trade association VNLOK is pursuing legal action against Meta and filed a complaint with the European Commission. VNLOK alleges the company has failed to prevent large-scale […] The post Dutch Gambling Trade Group Sues Meta Over Illegal Gambling Ads, Files EU Complaint appeared first on Gambling Insider.
The trade body alleges Facebook and Instagram have become major distribution channels for illegal gambling advertisements and are helping fuel the growth of the Dutch black market. Dutch gambling trade association VNLOK is pursuing legal action against Meta and filed a complaint with the European Commission. VNLOK alleges the company has failed to prevent large-scale promotion of illegal gambling operators on Facebook and Instagram. The association represents licensed online gambling operators in the Netherlands. It claims Meta has failed to comply with obligations under the European Union’s Digital Services Act (DSA) despite repeated warnings about illegal gambling advertisements appearing on its platforms. VNLOK’s research found that in the last quarter of 2025, an average of 70,000 gambling ads targeting Dutch consumers appeared on Meta platforms. The group claims more than 95% of those advertisements promoted unlicensed gambling operators and that Meta removed fewer than 5%. VNLOK Chairman Björn Fuchs said the issue extends beyond competition with licensed operators. This is not only an economic problem, but above all a major risk to consumer protection. Illegal providers do not adhere to rules regarding addiction prevention and actively target vulnerable groups such as minors and problem gamblers.” The association estimates the illegal market has reached more than €1 billion ($1.15 billion) in annual wagers. That makes it approximately the same size as the regulated sector. VNLOK Seeks Court Order and EU Intervention VNLOK criticized Meta’s approach to relying primarily on retroactive reporting via standard user tools. The organization argues that the DSA requires very large online platforms, such as Meta, to take adequate measures to limit the risks of illegal content, especially when it occurs structurally and on a large scale. VNLOK said it is pursuing legal action “because Meta refuses to enter into a substantive dialogue with the trade association.” According to the association, Meta has requested examples of illegal gambling advertisements but has refused “to enter into a substantive dialogue with the trade association.” The lawsuit seeks a judicial declaration that Meta has violated the DSA and is liable for illegal gambling content appearing on its platforms. VNLOK is also requesting a court order requiring the company to implement stronger systems to detect and prevent illegal gambling advertisements, along with financial penalties for non-compliance. Separately, the association has asked the European Commission to investigate Meta’s conduct and consider enforcement measures under the DSA. Meta Also Faces a New California Lawsuit The Dutch action comes as Meta faces separate litigation in California involving similar allegations regarding gambling advertising. Earlier this month, California resident Joseph Allen filed a lawsuit against Meta in Sacramento County Superior Court. Allen alleges that the company’s advertising systems directed him toward illegal sportsbook promotions and ultimately a fraudulent gambling operation known as “Gwin Sportsbook.” The lawsuit claims Meta’s advertising algorithms used user data and online activity to target gambling-related advertisements. It also alleges the company failed to screen gambling advertisers adequately. The lawsuit is not the first to challenge Meta’s algorithmic systems. Earlier this year, a jury in Los Angeles ordered Meta and Google to pay $6 million in a case alleging that the companies employed behavioral and neurobiological techniques similar to those used by slot machine manufacturers and cigarette companies to drive user engagement. Growing International Scrutiny The Dutch and California lawsuits are the latest examples of accusations against Meta’s role in distributing illegal gambling advertising. Earlier this year, the company faced scrutiny in Australia for failure to remove an Instagram influencer’s posts promoting an illegal offshore platform. Other regulators have also questioned Meta’s enforcement record on illegal gambling advertising. Earlier this year, the U.K. Gambling Commission’s Executive Director of Research and Policy, Tim Miller, criticized Meta for allowing illegal gambling operators to run ads on its platforms. Last year, authorities in Brazil ordered Meta to remove illegal gambling advertisements from its platforms. In Malaysia, government officials have similarly called on Meta to take stronger action against illegal gambling activity on its platforms. While VNLOK’s legal action currently focuses on Meta, the association said other stakeholders, including search engines, banks, and game providers, must also do more to prevent illegal gambling operators from reaching consumers. The post Dutch Gambling Trade Group Sues Meta Over Illegal Gambling Ads, Files EU Complaint appeared first on Gambling Insider.
Why DraftKings’ Biggest Prediction Markets Opportunity May Still Be Ahead
Citizens argues that Railbird and market making, not today’s trading volumes, could become the most valuable parts of DraftKings’ prediction markets business. The most valuable part of DraftKings’ prediction markets business may not exist yet. In a research note, Citizens analysts Jordan Bender and Isabelle Slavin argued that the company’s forthcoming Railbird exchange integration and […] The post Why DraftKings’ Biggest Prediction Markets Opportunity May Still Be Ahead appeared first on Gambling Insider.
Citizens argues that Railbird and market making, not today’s trading volumes, could become the most valuable parts of DraftKings’ prediction markets business. The most valuable part of DraftKings’ prediction markets business may not exist yet. In a research note, Citizens analysts Jordan Bender and Isabelle Slavin argued that the company’s forthcoming Railbird exchange integration and planned market-making operations could ultimately prove more important than the customer growth and trading volume currently driving investor attention. Those capabilities drive the firm’s forecast that DraftKings could generate approximately $1 billion in annual revenue by 2030. Citizens estimates annual revenue of $907 million at a 20% market share, and up to $1.25 billion at a 30% share. Based on those market share assumptions, analysts predict that the prediction market business could be worth between $10 billion at 20% market share and $14 billion at 30%. The assessment comes as DraftKings continues laying the groundwork for that strategy through the expansion of its Predictions platform, the rollout of parlay-style “Combos” contracts, and the planned launch of its DKeX exchange infrastructure. Today’s Business Is Primarily About Growth The report argues that the current prediction market volume remains relatively insignificant from an earnings perspective. DraftKings disclosed approximately $108 million in consumer trading volume during May. Citizens estimates that translates into roughly $2 million in gross revenue at an approximate 2% take rate. The analysts noted that promotional spending likely offset much of that revenue during the period. Citizens also noted that the company has guided to between $200 million and $300 million of Predictions-related customer acquisition spending during 2026. Based on current acquisition costs and marketing spend, the analysts estimate that DraftKings could add between two and three million new customers this year. The focus on customer acquisition is consistent with management’s broader strategy. Earlier this year, CEO Jason Robins described prediction markets as a strategic priority and an acquisition tool for users in non-sports betting states. DraftKings Has Been Expanding The Predictions Ecosystem DraftKings Predictions looks significantly different today than it did when it launched in December. Initially built around a limited selection of CME Group event contracts, DraftKings has steadily expanded the platform’s capabilities. In May, the company introduced “Combos,” a parlay-style product built on Crypto.com’s event-contract infrastructure. Executives have also suggested that the company may introduce more popular sports betting-type contracts, such as microbetting. Additionally, DraftKings also revised its fee structure and integrated Predictions into its broader multi-vertical “super app.” The “super app” includes sports predictions alongside sportsbook, casino, fantasy sports, and other offerings. The Citizens report suggests those product developments may represent only the early stages of a broader strategy. Why Railbird Could Change The Economics Citizens argues that DraftKings’ acquisition of Railbird could be more important than trading volume for the business’s long-term economics. DraftKings acquired the CFTC-regulated exchange operator in 2025, providing the company with its own exchange infrastructure. Last month, the company revealed the name of its forthcoming platform as DKeX. It also self-certified a series of sports-event contracts on DKeX. According to the report, little prediction-market volume currently flows through Railbird. Most activity is instead routed through CME Group and Crypto.com. The analysts expect that to change. By routing trades through its own exchange, DraftKings could capture exchange economics in addition to the fees generated through its consumer-facing platform. Citizens described exchange ownership as a form of vertical integration that allows DraftKings to participate in multiple parts of a transaction rather than functioning solely as a front-end application. The report also cited greater control over market creation, liquidity incentives, and product development as potential benefits of owning exchange infrastructure. Market Making Viewed As The Biggest Opportunity The strongest language in the report concerns market making. Market making is the most attractive layer,” the analysts wrote. Market makers provide liquidity by continuously quoting prices and taking the opposite side of trades, earning revenue through spreads and trading activity. Unlike many prediction-market operators, DraftKings already employs traders and risk-management teams to price sporting events, manage sportsbook exposure, and respond to news in real time. Citizens argues that those capabilities could provide a natural advantage if the company begins making markets on its own exchange and eventually on third-party platforms. Under that model, DraftKings would not simply earn revenue from customers placing trades. It could also generate income by providing liquidity and capturing bid-ask spreads across prediction markets. The report estimates third-party market-making activity alone could generate approximately $184 million in EBITDA by 2030. The analysts said conversations with market makers suggested sports betting operators may be particularly well positioned in sports-event contracts. That’s because they already possess pricing expertise, trading infrastructure, and proprietary models developed through years of sportsbook operations. NFL Season Could Offer The Next Major Test Citizens believes the next major milestone for DraftKings Predictions could arrive during football season. The analysts expect DraftKings to begin routing a larger share of activity through DKeX. At the same time, the company will likely expand market-making operations on its own exchange and, potentially, across third-party venues. If that occurs, investors may receive their first meaningful look at the business model underpinning the firm’s long-term projections. Currently, much of the attention surrounding Predictions has focused on downloads, customer acquisition, and growth in trading volume. The Citizens report suggests the bigger question may be whether DraftKings can successfully evolve beyond a consumer-facing prediction platform into a broker, exchange operator, and market maker simultaneously. If it can, analysts believe the business could eventually become one of the company’s most significant growth opportunities. The post Why DraftKings’ Biggest Prediction Markets Opportunity May Still Be Ahead appeared first on Gambling Insider.
Americans Oppose Political Prediction Markets Despite Industry Growth Push, Poll Finds
The prediction market industry is betting big on politics. Many Americans appear uncomfortable with the wager. Americans are significantly more comfortable with sports-related prediction markets than those tied to elections and politics, according to a new POLITICO/Public First survey. The poll, conducted by U.K polling firm Public First, found that 44% of respondents believe betting […] The post Americans Oppose Political Prediction Markets Despite Industry Growth Push, Poll Finds appeared first on Gambling Insider.
The prediction market industry is betting big on politics. Many Americans appear uncomfortable with the wager. Americans are significantly more comfortable with sports-related prediction markets than those tied to elections and politics, according to a new POLITICO/Public First survey. The poll, conducted by U.K polling firm Public First, found that 44% of respondents believe betting on election outcomes should be illegal, compared with 30% who said it should be legal. A similar share of respondents opposed markets on presidential pardons and comments by public figures. The findings arrive as prediction market operators continue to expand their political offerings. Analysts have increasingly pointed to elections and public policy contracts as major future growth opportunities for the emerging sector. Election Betting Faces Strongest Political Opposition Sports event contracts received the strongest support. About 53% of respondents say these contracts should be legal, with 23% saying they should be illegal. Weather- and award show-related contracts also received relatively strong support. Almost half (46%) of Americans say weather-related contracts should be legal, with 24% saying otherwise. Award show contracts receive nearly identical responses. However, public opinion shifts sharply when politics enters the equation. Markets tied to presidential pardons drew responses similar to those to election outcomes: 43% said they should be illegal, and 25% said they should be legal. Forty percent also opposed betting on comments the president or news outlets may make, compared with 27% who supported such markets. War- and terrorism-related contracts generated the strongest overall resistance. Fifty-seven percent said betting on the outcome of wars should be illegal, while 64% opposed markets involving acts of terrorism. Americans remain divided overall about prediction markets, according to the survey. About 29% said the growing popularity of prediction markets is a negative thing, compared to 19% who viewed it positively. Another 28% said it was neither positive nor negative, while 24% were unsure. More than half of respondents said they would not consider placing a wager in a prediction market. Political Markets Seen as Major Growth Opportunity According to POLITICO, nearly $700 million has already traded on 2028 presidential election markets across Kalshi and Polymarket’s international platform. The 2024 U.S. presidential election was the most traded prediction market event to date, generating more than $3.6bn in volume on Polymarket’s international platform. While sports currently account for the majority of trading, political markets are increasingly viewed as one of the industry’s largest growth opportunities. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts recently described politics, elections, and public policy contracts as the industry’s “greatest opportunity.” Analysts estimated that such markets could account for 27% of trading volume by 2030, up from roughly 10% in early 2025. The analysts projected political and public policy markets could generate approximately $266 billion in annual trading volume by 2030. Public Skepticism Mirrors Legislative Concerns The survey arrives amid growing legislative scrutiny of prediction markets at both the federal and state levels. At the federal level, there are over 25 prediction market-related bills introduced this year. Several proposals would prohibit election-related contracts, sports-event contracts, or participation by elected officials and government insiders. Among the measures introduced this year, the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act would prohibit contracts for sports and election events. At the same time, the Stop Trading on Predictions and Corrupt Bets Act would ban contracts tied to elections, government actions, military conflicts, and sporting events. Other proposals would prohibit members of Congress, senior government officials, judges, and campaign insiders from participating in prediction markets. State lawmakers have also begun taking action. Earlier this year, Minnesota enacted the nation’s first prediction market ban, prohibiting a wide range of event contracts tied to sports, elections, weather, award shows, and other outcomes. The CFTC, Kalshi, and Polymarket subsequently filed suits challenging the law. Tennessee adopted a different approach. The state enacted legislation that creates criminal penalties for insider trading and market manipulation involving prediction markets. The bills, at both the federal and state levels, have largely been driven by concerns about election integrity, insider trading, market manipulation, and the expansion of wagering into areas traditionally viewed as outside gambling regulation. The POLITICO survey suggests many of those concerns may resonate with the public. While sports-related contracts received majority support, political markets faced significantly greater opposition, with more respondents saying election betting should be illegal than legal. The post Americans Oppose Political Prediction Markets Despite Industry Growth Push, Poll Finds appeared first on Gambling Insider.
NCAA Bans Former Iona Player Adam Njie Jr. in Alleged Game-Fixing Plot
While Njie Jr. claims he didn’t actually shave points, the NCAA says that doesn’t matter. Another men’s college basketball player allegedly involved in a massive game-rigging scheme described in an equally massive federal indictment in January has been banned by the NCAA. In a release last week, the NCAA said that Adam Njie Jr. had […] The post NCAA Bans Former Iona Player Adam Njie Jr. in Alleged Game-Fixing Plot appeared first on Gambling Insider.
While Njie Jr. claims he didn’t actually shave points, the NCAA says that doesn’t matter. Another men’s college basketball player allegedly involved in a massive game-rigging scheme described in an equally massive federal indictment in January has been banned by the NCAA. In a release last week, the NCAA said that Adam Njie Jr. had been made permanently ineligible after allegedly conspiring to fix games while at Iona as a freshman in the 2024-2025 season. Njie Jr., who claims he didn’t follow through on promises to shave points for gamblers, cooperated with investigators and “agreed to his violations,” according to the release. Allegedly physically threatened by gamblers after one failed plan to shave points, Njie Jr. was mired in the same overlapping investigations that led to the conviction of Jontay Porter on fraud charges and has another former NBA player, Terry Rozier, set to stand trial in the Eastern District of New York on sports bribery charges in February. Njie Jr. has not been charged with a crime. Inside the Banishment of Iona Basketball Player Six men described as “fixers” in the Jan. 15 Eastern District of Pennsylvania indictment of a sprawling men’s college basketball corruption scheme were identified by the NCAA as the bettors in the Iona case. Njie Jr.’s potential involvement in a corruption scheme was unearthed by NCAA enforcement staff after interviewing a source involved in two other cases in July and September. That source said “two known bettors,” had contacted Njie Jr., about shaving points, leading to the Mississippi Gaming Commission flagging three wagers risking $15,000 on Rice covering the first-half spread against the Gaels in the Baha Mar Hoops Nassau Championship in the Bahamas.. With the game tied 35-35 at the half, Iona covered the spread, scoring the bets as losers. Njie Jr. insists that he only shared information with what the NCAA says are “known bettors” before two games. He did not, he claims, follow through on a plan to help ensure his team failed to cover the point spread of a Dec. 1, 2024 game against Rice. The guard scored nine of his 19 points in the first half to co-lead the Gaels in scoring. Njie After Lost Bets, NCAA Says The NCAA claims to have found evidence that Njie was threatened after the Rice game, and that he assured gamblers he would make up for the losses in a Dec. 6 game against Sacred Heart. Njie Jr. did not attempt a first-half shot against Sacred Heart as Iona trailed by 21 points at intermission and went on to lose 83-59. The NCAA did not specify the alleged bet gamblers wanted to be manipulated in that game. The full-game line was between Iona -1 and -1.5. In charging documents for the NCAA case, which involved more than 39 former players, federal prosecutors claim that alleged fixer Jalen Smith texted conspiring players during halftimes to do a better job of rigging their game. Njie Jr. transferred from Iona to Dayton in 2025, but was not allowed to play during the NCAA and Department of Justice investigations. He transferred to Hampton in May. Players Allegedly Offered Big Bribes In the original EDPA charging documents, prosecutors noted that “the fixers targeted for their scheme NCAA basketball players for whom the bribe payments would meaningfully supplement or exceed legitimate NIL opportunities. The fixers also generally targeted for their scheme players on teams that were underdogs in games and sought to have them fail to cover the spreads in those games.” Whether Njie Jr. actually shaved points is immaterial, according to the NCAA. “The act of sharing information with a bettor is prohibited by NCAA legislation and is treated the same as point shaving from an NCAA enforcement perspective, regardless of whether the student-athlete goes through with throwing the game” the NCAA said in the release. “Although the Committee on Infractions does not currently assess penalties for student-athletes who violate NCAA rules, their participation in violations is not without consequence. Student-athletes who are found to have violated NCAA rules are ineligible and can be reinstated only with the assistance of an NCAA school.” The post NCAA Bans Former Iona Player Adam Njie Jr. in Alleged Game-Fixing Plot appeared first on Gambling Insider.
Learning Hormones May Influence Gambling Urge Was ‘Lightbulb’ Moment for UK Woman. New Research Aims to Prove It.
Women in gambling recovery noticed it became harder to cope during certain menstrual phases. New research is hoping to confirm those lived experiences. It wasn’t until she was in recovery that Kiki Marriott realized her gambling urge always seemed to peak during a certain phase of her menstrual cycle. Marriott, who completed residential treatment for […] The post Learning Hormones May Influence Gambling Urge Was ‘Lightbulb’ Moment for UK Woman. New Research Aims to Prove It. appeared first on Gambling Insider.
Women in gambling recovery noticed it became harder to cope during certain menstrual phases. New research is hoping to confirm those lived experiences. It wasn’t until she was in recovery that Kiki Marriott realized her gambling urge always seemed to peak during a certain phase of her menstrual cycle. Marriott, who completed residential treatment for a 22-year gambling and substance use addiction in 2024, says she noticed a time each month when recovery felt harder. During that phase, she didn’t want to attend her meetings or support groups, she told Gambling Insider on a video call. I didn’t want to talk to anybody, and I was just really moody and horrible, and I was so close to pressing that button a few times, and I didn’t understand why.” Then, in one of her women-focused gambling support groups, another participant mentioned her period, and a “massive lightbulb” went off. Partnership Investigates Link Between Menstrual Cycle, Gambling Harm After 22 years of active addiction in a society that largely ignored the in and out of women’s cycles, Marriott said she didn’t know a lot about her own body. “[My cycle] wasn’t an open conversation in my home, so I just had a period every month, and I just dealt with that and carried on,” Marriott recalled. I didn’t understand the hormones and the fluctuations and the bouts of depression, and then feeling really hyper, and I thought I had all these other mental health problems … but really and truly, I was just reacting to the trauma I’d suffered. No one taught me how to regulate my own emotions; no one taught me about my nervous system or fight-or-flight mode. Nobody taught me how to process anything, so I just blocked it all out with a substance or gambling.” When she came into recovery and was still feeling erratic in certain parts of her cycle, Marriott said she feared relapse. But after her revelation, she took steps to learn about her body’s hormonal fluctuations, and today she’s no longer scared of her ovulation week. Marriott, 40, said that’s the phase of her cycle she finds most destabilizing. But today, she knows her body well enough to prepare to meet the monthly challenge, she added. Now, a partnership between gambling harm charity Gordon Moody and the University of Birmingham is investigating the link between the menstrual cycle and gambling harms. They want to know if hormonal fluctuations linked to menstruation, ovulation, menopause, and childbirth influence gambling behaviors, impulsivity, and risk-taking. Hypothesis Backed by Common Experience “Anecdotally, you know as well as I, you reach for the chocolate at certain times of the month more than others,” said Claire Snowden-Bird, Gordon Moody’s Interim Clinical Director, during a virtual interview with Gambling Insider. That’s why this new area of research is important, she added. A better understanding of what’s happening hormonally during women’s menstrual cycles could inform gender-responsive treatment for women experiencing problem gambling. And, potentially, help those living with other behavioral or substance addictions. Women need to be aware of this, just like women are aware of, ‘oh, I’m feeling a bit angry because I’m due on,’ or ‘I’m, you know, eating crap because I’m due on,’ ‘oh, I’m gonna start gambling a little bit more now.’ And then actually being able to do things, put things in place, understand what’s happening.” Just knowing this is a possibility could be a huge advantage because “people can be aware of their triggers, said Snowden-Bird. “I’m really on board with this research, and I think there’s going to be a huge lightbulb moment for a lot of women.” Despite Experiencing Increasing Harm, Women Scarce in Gambling Treatment While there is evidence of more UK women being negatively affected by gambling, Gordon Moody says they remain “significantly under-represented” in residential treatment. Announcing the research partnership, the organization cited “stigma, caring responsibilities and a lack of gender-specific approaches” as barriers to women accessing support. Cheryl Williams, strategic lead of gambling-related and other harms at Adferiad, told Gambling Insider on a video call that the mental health support charity’s participants typically reflect that imbalance. Adferiad runs Parkland Place, a trio of rehab and detoxification facilities for drug, alcohol, and gambling addictions in the UK. Illustrating the disparity, Williams said 75% of applicants for a recent pilot project were men. Women, she said, echoing Gordon Moody, face added stigma with gambling and recovery. When seeking treatment, Williams said learning about their cycle seems to offer female clients a “better understanding” of the urge to gamble at certain times. In 2024, Marriott was one of those clients. And while seeking in-patient treatment at Parkland, she developed a passion for helping other women. Hormonal Shifts Becoming Part of the Recovery Conversation Marriott (pictured here) is proud to say that she’s in recovery. “ I don’t feel any shame that I’m an addict, because it saved my life, and it’s also given me a life,” she said. These days, Marriott’s a mentor. Each week, she has one-on-one sessions with peers to help empower them into gambling recovery. She also attends and facilitates women’s gambling recovery groups, where she said they frequently talk about the hormonal rollercoaster. All of us are super aware of how our hormones play a bigger part in how we feel each month.” Marriott was also a guest on the No Dice podcast, where she discussed the menstrual cycle and women’s gambling behavior with host Cat Cochrane. She even adjusts her work schedule to be more forgiving during her ovulation week. It takes a lot of inner work, but when you learn about your body and mind and what tools work for you, it helps you cope, she said. Research Aims to Inform Women-Centered Treatment Policies While UK gambling treatment programs typically approach men and women the same, said the University of Birmingham’s Renate Reniers, they are mostly based on studies focused on men. Reniers is a research psychologist and lecturer at the university’s Birmingham Medical School. She’s also the primary supervisor of PhD student Holly Harwood, who is undertaking the landmark research. During a video conference with Reniers and Harwood, Reniers said that after crossing paths at an event, a contact at Gordon Moody revealed that evidence from its treatment programs showed a possible link between gambling behavior and menstrual phases. Together, they submitted a research proposal to the Medical Research Council, received funding, and recruited Harwood for the project. Ideally, the findings will impact future policies at Gordon Moody and, hopefully, other treatment centers in the UK, said Reniers. Maybe even internationally. Maybe we do need to have adapted programs for men and women. Or maybe we need to make sure that there are certain phases of the cycle, there’s extra support available, or that we give people certain tools.” “Or is just the awareness enough?,” she wondered. Are Operators Paying Attention? If it’s true that women might be more inclined to gamble during a particular hormonal phase, gambling companies would be well-poised to see the evidence. Williams said she’s heard whispers that a period tracking app sold its data to gambling companies. Gambling Insider has been unable to confirm the rumor. Still, in 2025, a California court found Meta liable for using period-tracking data from the Flo Health app to target advertising between 2016 and 2019. An Observer investigation also found UK Gambling companies “covertly tracking” website visits and sending that data to Meta without consent. The Observer said Meta then used the information to profile people as gamblers and flood them with ads from casinos and betting sites. There’s no indication the two data troves ever crossed paths. Research Will Measure Sex, Stress Hormones Harwood told Gambling Insider that her research will take a “longitudinal look at the menstrual cycle” and its impact over different phases. To do so, they’ll be looking at craving and reward sensitivity in psychometric tests and taking biological samples. They’re waiting on ethics approval. Once up and running, participants recruited through Gordon Moody will do a range of questionnaires and participate in focus groups over a course of about three months. They’ll also wear a sweat patch to measure hormone levels throughout their cycle. Harwood said they also want to collect hair samples to measure cortisol levels and see whether that plays a role. One centimeter from the scalp is one last month of your cortisol production. So, using that we’re going to see if that can impact how behavior throughout the cycle will change.” Harwood plans to recruit between 50 and 100 participants throughout the study. Reniers added that the research phase should run for about 2.5 years, to “hopefully get a nice amount of data.” Then Harwood will have to analyze and report her findings. To their knowledge, this is the first study of its kind to look at women with harmful gambling behavior, said Reniers. Previous evidence came from studies whose participants exhibited low gambling severity. Nonetheless, existing literature suggests that higher estrogen causes more risk-taking behavior, less risk-aversion, and more gambling behavior, Harwood said. So, going in, they can predict that craving and reward sensitivity would be higher than when estrogen levels are high. Since higher progesterone seems to mediate gambling behavior, it suggests that risky, reward-driven behavior will be less likely mid-luteal when progesterone is higher. Findings May Go Beyond Gambling, Or Make a Case for Drug Therapies While post-research impacts depend on the results, Harwood confirmed the intention is to help make Gordon Moody’s treatment more gender-responsive. There’s also a chance findings may show pharmacological treatments could be an additional line of defense. Harwood again noted that other studies found that progesterone can help reduce cocaine and nicotine use. Reniers said that she’s hopeful Harwood’s work will contribute to better treatments for women, even beyond gambling harm. It’s internationally known that women are underrepresented in research. It’s not just the UK, I think it’s an international thing. … Hopefully, research like this will contribute to gender informed treatments regarding gambling harms, but also hopefully in a wider context of other mental health problems. … If that’s something we can achieve with this work, it would be really satisfying.” This research is also laying the groundwork for future follow-up studies by Harwood and others, Reniers said. In the meantime, “every woman should be aware of what their hormones can do in their body,” said Harwood. It’s very important to know what’s going on inside your body and how that can affect your behavior. But definitely at the level of people working with people with different addictions, they should absolutely be aware.” “I only hope more publicity comes to this subject, and more researchers have a look,” Harwood added, “because it’s very lacking in research.” Recovery Means Getting to Live, Not Just Exist For her part, Marriott is happy that people are taking the conversation to a bigger platform. She hopes that, once published, the research will spark an even bigger conversation and raise more awareness of hormones’ behavioral influence. “Knowledge is power,” Marriott said. The more people that hear about this, talk about this, the more people are going to get the help, and the more people, especially women, won’t relapse. They might not relapse; it might save them from a relapse. Or it might get them a really good stint in recovery. If they hear many different types of people talking about this, they’re gonna be, ‘oh my god, I’m not crazy, loads of people are experiencing what I’ve experienced.’” If they do relapse, knowing this may be a factor could help. And they’ll also know that next month they need extra support in place, Marriott said. Even her friends who are not in recovery have started considering the effect of their cycle on what they say and do, she added. “That’s another positive from learning about your body: just knowing what you can and can’t entertain in a certain phase of your cycle.” Offering some last words to anyone considering getting addiction help, Marriott suggested that recovery makes living, not just existing, possible. You get to live instead of exist. I always like to put that into what I do, because I love that saying… There are so many of us in active addiction; we are existing; we don’t get to live. And I get to live every day now, which, the good, the bad, the ugly, is beautiful.” The post Learning Hormones May Influence Gambling Urge Was ‘Lightbulb’ Moment for UK Woman. New Research Aims to Prove It. appeared first on Gambling Insider.