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Bernstein estimates Macau’s January revenue will drop 60%

Based on the first 10 days of January, analysts from brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd estimated Macau casino gross gaming revenue is likely to drop 60% year-on-year.

Macau2021

According to GGRAsia, the analysts said: "Our currently-published estimates for 2021 GGR [are for] approximately 80% of 2019 revenue."

But travel restrictions can further disrupt gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth as mainland China’s citizens are urged not to travel during the upcoming New Year celebration, and it would be only in 2022 that GGR would reach 2019 levels.

The analysts, Vitaly Umansky, Tianjiao Yu and Kelsey Zhu, estimate GGR for the first 10 days of January was up 13% from December levels. The estimated daily GGR for the 10-day period was MOP285m ($35.6m) or MOP2.85bn in total. The daily GGR is higher than December’s, at MOP252m.

VIP revenue for the ten-day period was down mid-70% year-on-year, while mass-market revenue was down by low-60%.

Macau’s GGR for December 2020 was MOP7.82bn, a 66% fall, but the recorded sum is still the highest since January 2020. Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) previously announced GGR for 2020 was MOP60.44bn, almost a 79% drop from the MOP292.46bn recorded in 2019.

DICJ also reported it received a lesser number of suspicious transaction reports: during 2020, the total number of reports was 1,215, a 37% drop from the 1,913 that were filed in 2019.


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