Key points:
- Thailand could become Asia’s fourth-largest casino market by revenue
- EBITDA margins estimated between 34% and 49% due to favourable tax rate
- Maybank anticipates legislation could pass by early 2026 despite political friction
Thailand’s proposed casino entertainment complex policy could unlock significant economic potential, with projected annual revenues of THB278bn ($8.39bn), according to a recent analysis by Maybank Securities (Thailand) PCL.
The report highlights that the country's large tourism base and relatively low proposed tax rate on gross gaming revenue (GGR) position it favourably in the region. EBITDA margins for Thai casino resorts could reach between 34% and 49%, outperforming peers in Macau and Singapore, where tax rates on mass-market play range from 25% to 40%.
Maybank estimates that approximately THB195bn of annual revenue would be derived from gaming activity, with the remaining 30% expected from non-gaming segments such as accommodation, food, and retail. Legal resorts would also likely absorb a significant portion of underground online gambling, which the Center for Gambling Studies estimates to be worth around THB155bn annually.
Despite signs of internal disagreement within the ruling coalition, particularly between the Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties, Maybank remains optimistic that the legal framework could be in place by the first quarter of 2026. A delay remains possible should political negotiations stall.
Initial investment requirements for large-scale integrated resorts are expected to exceed THB100bn per site. The proposed licence structure includes a THB4.9bn upfront fee and an annual payment of up to THB1bn, with licences valid for 30 years and reviewed every five years.
