Key points:
- Mid-June gross gaming revenue estimated at MOP 10bn
- VIP win rate remains above average, supporting weekly growth
- Investment banks revise June forecast upwards to MOP 20.2bn
Macau’s gaming sector has shown resilience during what is traditionally a slower season, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the first 15 days of June estimated to have reached MOP 10bn, according to industry reports cited by Macao Daily.
Citigroup analysts noted that average daily revenue between 9 and 15 June climbed 5% to MOP 686m, up from MOP 650m during the first week of the month. This increase was largely driven by strong VIP performance, with win rates exceeding both seasonal averages and the earlier part of the month. The bank has revised its full-month forecast from MOP 18.5bn to MOP 19bn, representing about 80% of June 2019’s pre-pandemic levels.
HSBC Global Research similarly credited elevated VIP win rates for supporting stronger-than-expected June figures. Stable high-end mass market activity and non-gaming events also contributed to increased foot traffic, suggesting June’s off-peak label may no longer apply. If average daily revenue stays between MOP 62m and MOP 68m, HSBC expects monthly GGR to fall between MOP 19.3bn and MOP 20.2bn, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9% to 14%.
Good to know: Higher VIP win rates and non-gaming events have helped offset seasonality. Mid-tier mass market saw slight decline, but overall performance outpaced past Junes
J.P. Morgan’s estimates suggest that even if demand softens in the latter half of the month, GGR could still grow 7% to 12% year-on-year, lifting Q2 revenue by 5% to 6% compared to the same period last year.
UBS observed that the current monthly average daily revenue of MOP 66.7m is slightly down 2% from May, but remains stronger than the seasonal declines seen from 2015 to 2019, which averaged 9% quarter-on-quarter.
