Hong Kong analyst corroborates worrying Macau GGR forecast

Yan Zhaojun, a Zhongtai International strategic analyst, has backed up the prediction made by gaming industry expert Ben Lee, suggesting July will see a record low in gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the Macau region.

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Lee, Managing Partner of IGamiX Management & Consulting, predicted a July GGR of between MOP 200m ($24.8m) and MOP 300m. If accurate, this prediction would represent a 90% decrease compared to June 2022, despite June recording the lowest monthly GGR of the year.

Macau has been gripped by a new wave of Covid-19 cases, with the region reporting 1,816 cases since 18 June.

In response, Macau authorities ordered the closure of all businesses, including casinos, marking the first time casinos had been shut in over two years. These closures came amid falling visitor numbers to the region, both factors that can be attributed to the grim GGR forecast for July.

Speaking to the Macau Daily Times, Zhaojun went further than Lee, suggesting that July GGR could be as low as MOP 100m, refuting the MOP 200m prediction even in the best-case scenario.

Zhaojun went on to forecast a yearly GGR of under MOP 60bn, significantly less than the original prediction of MOP 80bn.

Macau casinos began the process of reopening after an easing of lockdown measures on 23 July. Under new conditions, 50% of casino staff may return to work, with stringent disinfection and social distancing measures in place. These conditions are expected to be in place until at least 29 July.

Despite casinos reopening their doors, business remains slow as a result of existing travel restrictions, with predictions for August GGR difficult to gauge. 


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