Alberta Launch, Prediction Markets and IRS Hearing: Gambling Stories to Watch This Week
Alberta's iGaming debut, escalating prediction market disputes and a key IRS hearing set the stage for another consequential week for the gambling industry.
This week in the gambling industry is highlighted by Alberta opening its regulated online market on July 13, an IRS hearing on gambling loss deductions and Maine’s sweepstakes casino ban taking effect. Meanwhile, further filings, lawsuits and court rulings could continue to reshape the prediction market landscape.
Elsewhere, regulators are set to release June sports betting figures that could provide insight into the FIFA World Cup’s impact on regulated sportsbooks, following a surge in trading volumes on prediction markets during the tournament.
Here are the gambling stories to watch this week.
Alberta’s Regulated iGaming Market Goes Live
July 13 marks the official launch of Alberta’s multi-license online gambling market, which includes sports betting and online casinos.
Some of the industry’s biggest brands, including FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365, are expected to go live on the opening day. Although over 50 operators have registered, many are expected to launch at a later date, resulting in a phased rollout of the market.
Alberta’s launch represents a major milestone for Canada’s gambling industry as it becomes only the second province to open its gambling market after Ontario in 2022.
What to watch:
- Which major operators go live on day one?
- Whether companies roll out aggressive bonuses and promotional offers to attract customers.
- Any technical issues or glitches during the market’s opening days.
- Additional operators announcing launch dates.
Prediction Markets Could Face Another Pivotal Week
The legal battles in the prediction market industry remain highly fluid, and another busy week could be ahead.
New York AG Could Pursue Enforcement Action Against Kalshi
Last week, a federal judge in New York denied Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction against state officials, with attention now shifting to what comes next.
One possibility is that New York Attorney General Letitia James pursues a civil enforcement action in state court seeking restitution, disgorgement, civil penalties and injunctive relief against the company.
What to watch:
- Whether New York Files a civil enforcement action against Kalshi.
North Carolina Could Become Prediction Markets’ Next Legal Fight
Over the past several months, there has been a legal development each week, so the chances of new developments this week are high.
One state to keep an eye on is North Carolina. Last week, Gov. Josh Stein signed the state’s $34 billion budget into law, creating a new 6% tax on prediction market operators’ revenue generated in the state.
The new tax could prompt the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or operators, such as Kalshi, to pursue legal action challenging it, as has happened in Kentucky and Illinois, which also enacted taxes on prediction market revenue.
Elsewhere, rulings could be issued on several cases. One of them is New Mexico’s motion to remand the state’s lawsuit against Kalshi back to a state court. Notably, courts in Nevada, Massachusetts, Michigan and Washington have all granted states’ requests to remand prediction market cases back to state court.
What to watch:
- Any new lawsuits, enforcement actions, or court rulings, particularly in North Carolina.
FIFA World Cup Enters Its Final Week
The FIFA World Cup has been one of the industry’s biggest growth catalysts. The tournament enters its final week, which could produce another surge in trading activity following substantial June volume.
Only four teams remain, all of them FIFA’s highest-ranked nations and the leading favorites on prediction market platforms. The highly anticipated matches could maintain the momentum that has propelled the industry into the mainstream over the past month.
What to watch:
- Updated World Cup trading figures during the tournament’s final week.
- Whether trading activity accelerates as bettors focus on the semifinals and final.
June Sports Betting Figures Could Reveal the World Cup’s Impact
Gaming regulators across the U.S. will likely start releasing June sports betting results throughout the week, providing an opportunity to gauge the FIFA World Cup’s impact on traditional sportsbooks.
The figures could also provide a comparison with prediction market trading volume, albeit the two are not directly comparable. Trading volume measures the value of contracts exchanged, while sportsbook revenue reflects the amount operators retain after paying winning bets.
Rather, industry observers will be watching to see whether sportsbooks experienced a similar boost or whether prediction markets captured a disproportionate share of the event’s wagering interest.
What to watch:
- Which states report notable World Cup-related increases in sports betting handle and revenue?
- Whether sportsbook growth matches the momentum seen in prediction markets.
IRS to Hold a Hearing on Gambling Loss Deductions
July 17 marks another key event. Then, the Internal Revenue Service will hold a public hearing on the implementation of the new 90% cap on gambling losses. The hearing could provide the first public insight into how the IRS intends to administer one of the most controversial gambling-related tax changes in recent years.
While the hearing cannot overturn the law itself, it may influence how the IRS interprets and implements the new rules. It could also open the door to additional public input on gambling tax policy.
What to watch:
- Comments from tax professionals and other stakeholders participating in the IRS hearing.
- Any indications of how the IRS intends to interpret and implement the 90% cap on gambling losses.
Maine’s Sweepstakes Casino Ban Takes Effect
Maine’s prohibition on sweepstakes casinos becomes effective on July 15, marking another significant development in the sector.
Many platforms, including Stake.us, Modo, Funzpoints, Fortune Wins and Zula, have already exited the state ahead of the deadline, while others, such as McLuck, have announced their exit for July 15. More platforms, such as VGW’s Chumba Casino, are expected to adjust their restricted territories list this week to include Maine.
What to watch:
- Operators’ exit strategies, including whether some remain active in the state even with the ban in effect.
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