The Gambling Wire: Football Fuels Record Weekend for Prediction Markets
Prediction markets shattered trading records as football drove billions in activity. Meanwhile, NFL Sunday also brought record sportsbook engagement and bettor-friendly results.
Prediction markets generated around $6 billion in trading volume over the first full football weekend of the NFL season, as sports and parlay trading pushed multiple platforms to new records. Traditional sportsbooks also saw a surge on Sunday. FanDuel reported record NFL engagement while favorites, overs and touchdown scorers largely favored bettors.
Elsewhere, prediction-market litigation continued in Arizona and New York, while DraftKings expanded its responsible gaming initiatives and Tribal leaders pushed for stronger gaming protections in federal legislation.
The Big Story: Football Drives Record Weekend for Prediction Markets
Prediction markets generated $3.12 billion in trading volume across eight exchanges Sunday, nearly matching the record $3.17 billion a day earlier, according to Jefferies.
Kalshi remained the dominant platform, accounting for $4.89 billion across Saturday and Sunday. Jefferies estimated that $963 million of its Sunday volume was NFL-related. Meanwhile, DKeX generated $137 million overall, including $110 million tied to NFL contracts.
DKeX’s Sunday total surpassed its previous daily record by approximately $84 million. Polymarket added an estimated $404 million, below its $532 million average daily volume during the World Cup.
Jefferies estimated NFL-related trading generated approximately $5.7 million in revenue for Kalshi and $1.1 million for DKeX.
Other datasets illustrate how much of the headline volume came from multi-leg contracts. Aldrin Research estimated that prediction markets generated at least $5.83 billion over the weekend, with 91% tied to sports and combo trading. Kalshi accounted for $4.89 billion.
TickerTracker calculated $5.66 billion across seven platforms, including $3.29 billion (58%) from parlays, and similarly put Kalshi’s volume at $4.89 billion.
InGame separately calculated Kalshi’s Sunday volume at $2.43 billion. That includes $1.48 billion in parlays and $409.9 million in straight football trading. The Dallas Cowboys-New York Giants game was its largest individual market, generating $56.3 million on the winner and $16.3 million on the spread.
The headline volume is not directly comparable with sportsbook handle. Prediction-market volume counts both sides of each trade, with professional or institutional market makers accounting for much of the maker side, particularly on long-odds parlays. InGame calculated Kalshi’s taker-side Sunday volume (a closer, though still imperfect, proxy for sportsbook handle) at $596.7 million.
Sportsbook Bettors Also Have Big Sunday
Traditional sportsbooks also saw heavy activity on the first NFL Sunday, with industry data showing a surge in engagement as bettors enjoyed favorable results.
GeoComply recorded 99.8 million geolocation checks from U.S. sportsbook customers on Sunday. The figures represent a 176% increase over the final Sunday before the NFL season, with approximately 135,700 new accounts registered. The number of checks also exceeded the 81.4 million recorded during Super Bowl LX, although the measurement windows differ.
Caesars Sportsbook football lead Joey Feazel told ESPN that the first NFL Sunday was a “champagne-popping day for bettors.” He noted that seven of eight early favorites won, six games went over their totals, and eight of the 10 most popular touchdown scorers found the end zone.
Eight of Caesars’ 10 most popular anytime touchdown selections cashed. BetMGM trading manager Adair Horne similarly said that bettors got right “basically the entire early slate” and that there were “plenty of successful parlays and same-game parlays.” Still, sportsbooks recovered some ground during the late games and the New York Giants’ Sunday night upset of the Dallas Cowboys.
FanDuel, meanwhile, announced that its sportsbook recorded “its biggest NFL regular season Sunday ever by active customers” without disclosing figures. The day, however, was less smooth for FanDuel’s daily fantasy operation, which suffered several hours of downtime ahead of the 1 p.m. ET games. FanDuel later apologized and said it refunded “net losses” to affected customers.
The Daily Wire
Prediction Market Legal Battles Keep Moving
Arizona has asked the Ninth Circuit to quickly remove a federal injunction that has prevented the state from enforcing its gambling laws against sports event contracts.
In a Sept. 14 motion, Arizona Attorney General Kristin Mayes asked the appeals court to summarily vacate the district court’s May 5 preliminary injunction. Mayes argues the Ninth Circuit’s Aug. 28 decision in the consolidated Nevada case now controls the Arizona case.
In the Nevada ruling, the appeals court concluded that sports-event contracts are likely neither swaps nor excluded commodities under the Commodity Exchange Act, and that federal commodities law likely does not preempt state gaming laws.
The prediction-market fight was also back before a federal judge in New York on Monday.
U.S. District Judge Lorna G. Schofield heard arguments over the CFTC’s request for a preliminary injunction preventing New York from applying state gambling laws against federally registered prediction market exchanges.
Judge Schofield pressed the CFTC on whether it can meet the requirements for an injunction.
Isn’t that just a toss-up?” the judge asked. “How can we find on a realistic level there’s a likelihood of success?”
Schofield noted that the U.S. Supreme Court has already been asked to settle the issue by New Jersey after the Ninth and Third Circuits came to conflicting decisions.
Responsible Gaming Initiatives, Tools Unveiled
DraftKings has expanded its responsible gaming offerings as the NFL season gets underway. The operator has introduced new customer tools, educational initiatives and advertising.
The efforts include:
- Custom cool-off periods that let customers step away for 3 to 364 days.
- Expanded partnership with Mindway AI through Gamalyze American Football.
- A new digital campaign featuring Kevin Hart and Nick Jonas will promote responsible engagement tools.
- PGA Tour sweepstakes beginning Sept. 16 that will encourage customers to interact with features, including My Budget Builder and My Stat Sheet.
In the U.K., researchers are preparing a major study examining how gambling-like features in video games affect children.
Edge Hill University received more than £900,000 ($1.21 million) from the Economic and Social Research Council for the three-year project, which will examine microtransactions, loot boxes and their effects on elementary (primary) school-aged children.
The university said more than 90% of U.K. children ages 5 to 11 play video games. Edge Hill says one in three purchases in-game items and spends an average of £26 per month. The research is scheduled to begin in January 2027 and is expected to produce recommendations for policymakers, along with resources for children and caregivers.
Policy, Promotions and Industry Moves
Elsewhere across the industry, Tribal leaders are pushing for changes in Washington, Google has tightened its gambling advertising rules, and several operators have updates spanning marketing, casino development and sports wagering.
The Indian Gaming Association has urged the Senate to reject the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act unless it includes stronger Tribal gaming protections. The Association wants Congress to prohibit sports betting and casino-style prediction markets and clarify that the legislation does not preempt Tribal, state or federal gaming laws, including the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act.
Google expanded certification requirements across its Gambling and Games advertising categories on Sept. 14. Advertisers must demonstrate “good policy health,” while repeated certificate revocations or violations can cost manager accounts eligibility for new certifications; eligible domains must also be directly owned and controlled by advertisers.
In Chicago, Bally’s Chairman Soo Kim reiterated that the company’s $1.7 billion permanent casino remains on track for an early 2027 opening. Kim said the call was intended to address “inaccurate reports” that construction had stopped and “reiterate our deep commitment to Bally’s Chicago.” Shortly before the call, Bally’s announced $560 million in financing for its Bronx casino project.
Novig’s Sydney Sweeney campaign has drawn much attention since its launch last week. However, it’s also drawing increasing criticism from female athletes, including Olympic champion Ariarne Titmus, over its portrayal of women in sports.
Finally, the World Jai Alai League begins Season X in Miami today, its first under new owner Rob Gough and 100 years after professional jai alai arrived in the city. The six-team league will hold 45 game days through December. Wagering is available through operators including DraftKings, FanDuel, Hard Rock Bet and BetRivers. Gough told Gambling Insider in August that he sees an opportunity to expand its audience, media reach and franchise model.
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