The Gambling Wire: MGM Takeover Bid Falls Apart as Caesars’ $17.6B Deal Advances
DraftKings investors react to Jason Robins’ prediction-market strategy as the CFTC weighs margin trading and NCLGS joins New Jersey’s Supreme Court fight with Kalshi.
A pair of major casino M&A developments led Wednesday’s headlines, while CFTC Chairman Michael Selig addressed mention markets and margin trading as new legal and market developments emerged across the prediction-market sector.
The Big Story: Different Outcomes for MGM, Caesars
Barry Diller’s People Inc. is abandoning its pursuit of MGM Resorts International while Caesars Entertainment shareholders backed Fertitta Entertainment’s proposed acquisition.
People Inc., which owns approximately 27% of MGM, withdrew its proposal to acquire the shares it does not already own. The June offer valued MGM at more than $18 billion and proposed paying $48.30 per share in cash.
“There are lots of ingredients that go into a proposal of this kind on its way to completion. We didn’t feel the mix was coming together in the way we had hoped and have decided not to pursue taking the company private at this time,” Diller said in announcing the decision.
People Inc. said it continues to believe in MGM’s prospects despite dropping the proposal.
On the same day, Caesars disclosed that shareholders had approved its acquisition by Tilman Fertitta’s Fertitta Entertainment.
Approximately 133.3 million shares voted in favor of the transaction, representing 65.4% of all outstanding shares as of the Aug. 21 record date. Around 4.3 million shares were against, while nearly 5.7 million abstained. The deal required support from a majority of Caesars’ roughly 203.8 million outstanding shares.
The all-cash transaction values Caesars at approximately $17.6 billion, including $11.9 billion of debt. Shareholders will receive $31 per share. The acquisition remains subject to regulatory approvals and other closing conditions.
The Daily Wire
CFTC Chair Addresses Prediction Market Risks, Margin Trading
Selig addressed prediction markets during a CNBC appearance on Wednesday, including concerns surrounding “mention markets” and the potential introduction of margin trading.
His comments came after CFTC staff issued an advisory warning that contracts based on whether an individual says certain words, appears somewhere or interacts with another person carry a “heightened risk of manipulation.”
The warning said that mention markets settle differently than most other types and depend on “the discrete conduct of a named person, and that conduct may be neither independently generated nor externally verifiable.”
Selig told CNBC that the agency has had “a lot of concern with these markets” and said, “a large number of these contracts have issues.”
Selig also discussed margin trading as Kalshi sought CFTC permission to introduce it for certain event contracts, allowing eligible traders to post less than the full value of their positions. He said the agency is evaluating the Kalshi filing and has not approved it.
The CFTC chairman said that margin trading would allow institutional traders who “meet very stringent eligibility” to trade event contracts on Kalshi. He added that margin trading on sports or other popular categories would not be allowed.
Selig also declined to provide more information on a potential wash-trading investigation involving Kalshi’s cryptocurrency markets.
NCLGS Files Brief in Kalshi Supreme Court Case, Response Delayed
The National Council of Legislators from Gaming States (NCLGS) filed an amicus brief supporting New Jersey’s petition for Supreme Court review of the Third Circuit decision favoring Kalshi.
NCLGS argued that states have traditionally served as the primary regulators of gambling. The organization warned that the Third Circuit’s preemption ruling could affect state gambling laws and Tribal gaming compacts, including in states that would lose “substantial revenue and other benefits” from those compacts.
NCLGS also pointed out the circuit split between the Third and Ninth Circuits.
Meanwhile, the Supreme Court granted Kalshi a 30-day extension to respond to New Jersey’s certiorari petition. Its response is now due Nov. 9.
Gaming attorney Daniel Wallach noted that the New Jersey case arising from the Third Circuit will now sit behind the Ninth Circuit litigation in the Supreme Court queue, potentially affecting how the Court considers the competing cases.
DraftKings Shares Fall Following Robins Prediction Market Comments
DraftKings shares fell around 4% Wednesday morning following CEO Jason Robins’ comments on the company’s prediction-market strategy, while Citizens also lowered its price target for the operator.
Speaking at the Wells Fargo Consumer Conference on Tuesday, Robins said strong early results in states without sports betting could prompt DraftKings to pull forward marketing and promotional spending previously planned for 2027. The comments raised concerns about the potential near-term impact on margins, although broader markets were also lower on Wednesday.
Robins nevertheless argued that DraftKings is well-positioned regardless of the legal outcome of sports event contracts.
I would also guess that if prediction markets got shut down by the Supreme Court tomorrow, our share price would pop.”
He said DraftKings would prefer prediction markets to remain available, describing them as a significant incremental opportunity.
Robins said the company’s prediction-market volume has grown to nearly 2.5 times its July level. He added that over a million customers have engaged with the Predict product and that the company holds a nearly double-digit share of sports prediction-market consumer volume.
Pew Research Center: Sports Drive Prediction Market Volume to $53B
Combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket more than doubled from $25.7 billion in May to approximately $53 billion in July, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of data from The Block.
Sports accounted for much of that growth.
During June and July, which coincided with the FIFA World Cup, sports trading exceeded $58 billion on Kalshi and approached $22 billion on Polymarket. Pew found that sports have become the most-traded category on both platforms by a wide margin.
However, the World Cup was not the only driver for the spike. In August, the combined volume remained around $47 billion. Meanwhile, preliminary September data indicate activity is increasing alongside the start of the football season.
Other findings include growth in cryptocurrency trading on Kalshi, which reached $6 billion in July. Polymarket US’s share of total Polymarket volume also rose from 4% in January to 39% in July.
Curaçao Gaming Authority Hit by Major Data Breach
The Curaçao Gaming Authority has suffered a major data breach involving tens of thousands of confidential licensing documents, including ownership, financial and identification records.
German security researcher Lilith Wittmann said she had access to the regulator’s systems for approximately nine months. Wittmann previously claimed responsibility for a breach of the Malta Gaming Authority earlier this year.
The Curaçao documents have been shared with media organizations, with reporting already raising questions about the ownership and regulatory oversight of hundreds of offshore gambling operators.
North Carolina Fines Underdog, bet365
North Carolina regulators issued a combined $250,000 in penalties against Underdog and bet365 over separate sports betting compliance violations.
Underdog agreed to a $175,000 penalty after self-reporting that it failed to properly verify the age and identity of 38 accounts, allowing underage individuals to access its sportsbook. The violations occurred when Underdog still operated a sportsbook in the state. In December 2025, the company voluntarily surrendered its license as it pursued prediction markets.
Bet365 was fined $75,000 for contacting customers included on the state’s self-exclusion list.
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