Macau’s casino revenue forecast seen as conservative by operators
Monthly gaming figures suggest full-year target could be exceeded.
Key points:
– Government revised full-year GGR forecast to MOP 228bn ($28.2bn)
– January to May GGR totalled MOP 97.7bn, averaging MOP 19.54bn per month
– Operators expect seasonal tourism to lift second-half figures
As reported by Macao Daily, Macau’s gaming industry believes the government’s revised forecast for annual gross gaming revenue (GGR) is on the conservative side. The new target of MOP 228bn reflects a monthly average of MOP 19bn.
In the first five months of 2025, Macau recorded GGR of MOP 97.7bn, representing a monthly average of MOP 19.54bn. This already surpasses the updated monthly benchmark. May alone saw revenue reach MOP 21.19bn, marking a post-pandemic high and approximately 82% of the same month in 2019.
A report by Citi forecasts June GGR at MOP 18.5bn, or around MOP 617m daily. Industry members anticipate that second-half performance will benefit from several holiday periods, including the summer school break, the National Day Golden Week and the Christmas season.
Good to know: If June revenue hits MOP 18bn, first-half GGR will total MOP 115.7bn. The remaining MOP 112.3bn needed to meet the full-year projection would represent a slight dip from current levels
Analysts have also noted signs of macroeconomic recovery. Policy efforts aimed at stabilising China’s housing and stock markets appear to be gradually boosting consumer confidence. The strengthening of the renminbi and the easing of travel restrictions are further supporting visitor numbers.
While average spending per visitor may be declining, the overall increase in tourist arrivals is helping to sustain gaming revenues. Operators suggest that a 3% to 5% year-on-year rise in second-half revenue remains feasible.
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