Q&A: DraftKings Johnny Avello Shares 40 Years of Super Bowl Memories and Insights

Super Bowl LX kicks off Sunday night in Santa Clara, Calif., with the Seattle Seahawks facing the New England Patriots. As he has for more than 40 years, Johnny Avello will be taking action on the big game.

After starting out in Las Vegas working table games, Avello became a ticket writer at the Las Vegas Hilton (now the Westgate Las Vegas). He’s now the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, where he’s been since 2018. Before that, the Vegas legend led the Wynn Sportsbook.

Gambling Insider caught up with Avello earlier this week to talk about the big game, how betting has changed on it, and, of course, his take on it.

Gambling Insider: What is DraftKings seeing from bettors on the Super Bowl?

Johnny Avello: “After the conference championship games, we opened the game (Seattle favored by) 3.5. We were at 4.5 by Monday morning. From that point till now, we’re mostly Seahawk money. When I say mostly, roughly around a 60/40 split somewhere in that area. The money line, we’re like a 60/40 split the opposite way on the Patriots. So they’re laying the points with the Seahawks, but they’re taking the money line with the Patriots.

“You might ask, why are they doing that? Well, the believers of the Patriots feel they won’t need the points, they’re going to win the game straight up. You put up $100 to win $195 instead of having to put up $110 to win $100.

The total we opened 46.5. We’re actually high on the over, but not much. When the dust clears, come Sunday, we’re probably going to need the under, because nobody likes to bet the under in football games in general, especially the Super Bowl.”

(NOTE: Betting lines are subject to change.)

GI: How has the Super Bowl changed from a betting perspective over the past 40 years?

JA: “We had some big bettors then, and a big bettor then would be a guy that would bet 100 grand on a game. That might be your biggest bet for the entire event. We wouldn’t take much more than that.

“As the years progressed, (Las Vegas sportsbooks were) the only game in town, except for illegal bookmakers and offshore betting. So we had the greatest parties. I would always say, ‘If you can’t make it to Las Vegas for the Super Bowl, you might consider going to the game.’ That was my thought process, because Vegas was a better attraction than the game itself.

Now here we are, 40 years later, and with DraftKings, we’re in 30 states plus some retail locations. We just take money from everywhere in the country and put up a much bigger menu, with many more offerings. So, you talk about a change from then to now, it’s huge. It’s a big change. Vegas is still there, and Vegas still has the parties, but Vegas really doesn’t compete when it comes to the amount of money taken, the amount of different offerings you could wager on. So as far as I’m concerned, DraftKings is now the king of that.”

GI: Regarding prop bets, is it mostly touchdowns, or what other prop bets are the go-to bet for DraftKings bettors this year?

JA: “The touchdown market, that’s only one overall market that we have to wager on, but that is a big market for the bettors. And it has been now for about three years, not only on the Super Bowl, but on weekly Sunday games. They love to bet the first touchdown scorer, so much that we expanded it to anytime touchdown scorers, and two touchdowns and three. We’ve come up with so many different offerings now for the touchdown market, but as a market alone, that will probably be the biggest betting proposition of the Super Bowl.

“But bettors are going to be betting all the others. The passing yards for Sam Darnold 230.5. The passing market for Drake Maye 221.5. We’re seeing action on those, the running backs’ rushing yards, the carries from the running backs, and then all those other kinds of unique props. Will there be a flea flicker? Will there be a quarterback catching a pass? Total players that have a passing attempt over 2.5, and all of those bets are pluses.

“That’s why the overall bettor that wants to participate in betting in the Super Bowl likes to bet pluses, because you put up less to get more.”

GI: How has coaching strategy affected setting lines since there are more coaches now who embrace going for two after touchdowns more often and going for it on fourth down rather than kicking a field goal?

JA: “It hasn’t affected us as far as setting the point spread itself, but it has affected us in setting some of the props. Will there be a fourth-down conversion is much more common now than it was in the past, because they go for it more.

As far as watching what some of these coaches have done as of late, you’re right. Even the guys who have been around for a while are taking more chances, and I personally don’t understand why. I think there’s a time to do that, but it’s not a time to do it in the first quarter. I thought that was a major mistake by (Denver coach Sean) Payton to go for that and not take the three points with a quarterback that was filling in and be up 10-0. He had to know that there was a snowstorm on its way in, so I felt that was a huge blunder on his part.

“A game like this, these guys have seen some mistakes from some of the coaches over the past couple of weeks. The Detroit coach (Dan Campbell) wasn’t very successful doing that at the end of the year. So, maybe these guys may go back to the conservative approach once you get into the game. Though adrenaline’s flowing, it’s hard to say what they may or may not. I think (New England coach Mike) Vrabel knows what he has. He’ll go for it if he thinks it’s the right situation, but he’ll also kick the ball or take the field goal in a different situation. So, he’s a highly respected coach by everyone, including me.

“So I think the guys may take some chances, certainly late, later in the game, but not early in the game.”

GI: As far as the game goes this year, how do you see it playing out? How would you bet the game?

JA: “I never know how the game’s gonna go, but what my head’s telling me is that the game will start off slow. Both quarterbacks are new to this. One’s (Maye) a second year playing pro football. The other (Darnold) has only had a bit of success last year with Minnesota, and they lost early in the playoffs and had a tremendous year. This year, (Darnold) is prone to mistakes, although he didn’t make any last week.

“I think the game starts off slow, and they don’t take a lot of chances, barring any fumbles in a red zone or interceptions in a red zone. Probably quite a few punts and waiting for somebody to make a mistake, then maybe in the fourth quarter, the game opens up a little bit more. But I see it more as a conservatively played game than a wide-open game.”