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Bernstein analysts: Macau GGR to drop 30% in June

Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd predict that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for June will decline by approximately 33% month-on-month, mainly due to newly imposed travel and safety restrictions on the neighbouring Guangdong province.

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VIP volume is expected to decline by 30% and average daily mass GGR should see a drop of about 29%. “Macau will continue to experience headwind during the first half of 2021, but we see GGR improvement beginning in the second half as Covid-related travel constraints begin to fall away,” said the analysts.

Lao Zileong, the president of the Association of Macau Tourist Agents, said the province is one of the main sources of tourism for Macau, with visitors from Guangdong making up 4-5% of hotel occupancy rates.

As the number of Covid-19 cases in the province spiked, Macau imposed a mandatory 14-day quarantine for arrivals from five of 11 districts in Guangzhou (Haizhu, Liwan, Nansha, Panyu and Yuexiu) and two districts in Foshan (Nanhai and Chancheng); and since the beginning of this week, all visitors from Guangdong are required to present a negative Covid-19 test certificate.

Due to the restrictions, daily visitors to Macau dropped by 23% for the first week of the month.

Another potential source of visitors is arrivals from Hong Kong; however, the travel bubble between the two regions was delayed multiple times mainly because of health and safety concerns.

It’s expected that freer travel won’t be implemented until later in the summer, as Hong Kong still records some active cases; no official timeline has yet been released.

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