Gibraltar Hopes New Prediction Market Rules Set European Standard
Rules governing prediction markets in Gibraltar distinguish the exchanges from gambling and do not allow self-certification.
Gibraltar took its next step toward becoming a validating force in Europe’s fledgling licensed prediction market industry with the release of its first set of regulations that create a new category for the platforms outside of the Gambling Act of 2025.
Among the consumer protection and integrity rules unveiled Monday is an allowance for the use of stablecoins to fund accounts.
The official posting of the Prediction Market Regulations 2026 comes roughly six weeks after US-based bet marketplace WagerWire became the second company to earn a license in principle from Gibraltar, which, under the direction of Justice, Trade and Industry Minister Nigel Feetham is seeking to expand its digital economy further into the gambling industry.
“We are taking a forward-looking approach to the regulation of prediction markets,” Feetham said in an exclusive statement to Gambling Insider. “This bespoke regulatory framework supports innovation while providing a clear and robust regime for authorisation, supervision, market integrity, participant protection, financial crime controls and the protection of Gibraltar’s reputation.
“This reflects Gibraltar’s longstanding approach as a jurisdiction that is commercially responsive while maintaining the highest regulatory standards. By introducing this framework, Gibraltar has become the first jurisdiction in the world to establish a dedicated regulatory regime for prediction markets.”
Gibraltar Prediction Market Base Set to Expand
ADI PredictStreet earned the first Gibraltar prediction market license in April, and the Abu Dhabi-based company later became the official prediction market of the FIFA World Cup.
WagerWire has not yet launched Wire Markets, but its founders hope to use Gibraltar’s licensure as a passport for global expansion.
“Gibraltar has taken a decisive step toward providing the regulatory certainty this industry has been waiting for by creating a modern regulatory framework that recognizes prediction markets as a distinct asset class, balancing innovation with strong consumer protections and market integrity,” WagerWire co-founder Travis Geiger told Gambling Insider.
“We’re honored to be among the first operators preparing to build under this new framework and look forward to helping define the next generation of regulated prediction markets.”
Prediction Markets Won’t Be Treated Like Gambling in Gibraltar
As identified by the regulations, which attest to be the first set of global prediction market rules, the Gibraltar framework focuses on a “transparent, responsible and future-ready network,” “market integrity,” consumer protections,” “comprehensive regulations,” and a pathway for growth.
Key Provisions of Gibraltar’s Prediction Market Regulations 2026
- Prediction markets fall under a new legal category: “Prediction market activity carried on in accordance with these Regulations is not to be treated as betting, gaming or a lottery for the purposes of the Act solely by reason of its characteristics as prediction market activity.”
- They will be regulated by their own set of rules, effectively differentiating them from sportsbooks or casinos
- Operators with Gibraltar gambling licenses must apply for separate prediction market approvals
- Self-certification of markets is not allowed, differentiating the process from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in the United States
- Regulators can suspend any market
- Markets must be resistant to manipulation and clearly defined
- Regulators can prohibit markets involving criminal conduct, deaths, serious injuries, terrorism, war, armed conflict, events with “objective” settlement, markets posing reputational risk to Gibraltar, and those likely to encourage manipulation or consumer harm
- Consumer protection protocols are established
- Allows the use of stablecoins – whose value is attached to an asset such as gold or British Pound – for deposits, collateral, settlements and withdrawals
- Requires operators to maintain a physical presence in Gibraltar
Feetham: Authorization Could Be Validating Beyond Gibraltar
Licensure in Gibraltar, a British Overseas Territory at the tip of the Iberian Peninsula, does not guarantee entry in other countries, especially considering the complexities of regulation throughout the continent. The legality of these platforms, despite the existence of Betfair Exchange in the United Kingdom since 2000, remains an unsettled question in numerous countries.
A briefing note on the regulations, provided to Gambling Insider, observes “internationally, there remains no settled consensus as to how prediction markets should be characterized. Different jurisdictions may view them differently. Gibraltar’s framework therefore provides an additional regulatory option by establishing a dedicated regime.”
Noting that the prediction market sector is “evolving rapidly,” the document asserts that the new regulations “provide a clear, adaptable and robust framework capable of supporting responsible innovation while maintaining high standards of market integrity, participant protection and regulatory oversight.”
But Feetham believes sanction in Gibraltar, a UK hub of various digital economies, including insurance, will have a validating effect beyond The Rock.
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