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Smarkets prices up next election after Truss becomes PM

UK betting operator Smarkets has released its odds on the future of British politics, following Liz Truss’s victory over Rishi Sunak in the race to become the next Prime Minister.

liz truss smarkets gambling insider web image

Truss faces a likelihood of 25% to be replaced before the end of 2023, while she also has a 3% chance of not seeing out this year according to the operator.

Smarkets Head of Politics, Matthew Shaddick, said: "Truss was a huge favourite to win the leadership election run-off, but her chance of winning a general election looks much less likely. Betting markets are pricing in a significant loss of Tory seats and a Labour Government is currently the most likely outcome."

Meanwhile, the odds on the incoming members of her first cabinet are taking shape, with Kwasi Kwarteng the favourite to be announced as Chancellor, James Cleverly on for the role of Foreign Secretary and Suella Braverman to become Home Secretary.

Furthermore, wider betting odds see Kwarteng installed as the early favourite to replace Truss – followed by ousted PM Boris Johnson, Kemi Badenoch and beaten finalist Rishi Sunak.

Smarkets are also giving Sir Keir Starmer a 56% chance of becoming the next Prime Minister, after the next general election is held – with Labour the overwhelming favourite to gain the most seats, albeit in a minority.

Any early signs of an immediate election appear slim too, according to Smarkets, which gives a 75% chance of the next general election taking place in 2024/25.

As the interest in the UK’s political figures intensifies, so does the betting public, as firms begin to offer firmer odds in the lead-up to the mandatory January 2025 election.

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