Macau gaming revenue poised to hit MOP 200bn in July
Momentum from summer holidays and live concerts drives stronger-than-expected takings.
Key points:
– Daily average gaming revenue reached MOP 7.16bn (US$890m) in early July
– Investment banks raise full-year growth forecast from -2% to +6%
– Casino shares rally, with several hitting multi-month highs
Macau’s casino sector continues to outperform market expectations, with leading investment banks now projecting gross gaming revenue (GGR) to reach MOP 200bn in July, according to Macao Daily. The strong start to the month has been attributed to robust summer tourism and a boost from the Jacky Cheung concert series.
Reports show that, in the first six days of July, total GGR reached MOP 43bn, equating to a daily average of MOP 7.16bn. This surpasses the daily averages of both May and June and marks a potential double-digit year-on-year growth.
JPMorgan analysts noted this marks the third straight month that revenue has exceeded seasonal norms and expectations. They believe this could signal the end of a prolonged downtrend in earnings estimates.
Good to know: UBS data suggests July’s average daily GGR has exceeded market consensus by 19% so far, outperforming the expected MOP 6.3bn
Citigroup, while remaining cautious, has raised its July forecast from MOP 195bn to MOP 200bn, equivalent to 82% of July 2019’s level. It anticipates daily averages may ease slightly to around MOP 6.28bn following the concert’s conclusion.
Macquarie pointed to favourable VIP win rates of 3.3% to 3.5% (up from last year’s 2.9%-3.1%) and a 2%-4% uptick in mass market performance. UBS has adjusted its 2025 GGR forecast to 6% growth, with 2026 and 2027 also revised upward to 3% annually.
Casino stocks surged in response. Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China posted gains of 1.87% and 2.3% respectively. Wynn Macau and SJM rose 6.4% and 4.68%, both hitting six-month highs, while MGM and Melco reached fresh 52-week peaks.
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