Macau: August gaming revenue forecast remains positive despite early slowdown
VIP win rates and weather warnings weigh on initial performance.
Key points:
– First 10 days of August gaming revenue estimated at MOP 7bn (US$868m)
– Daily average down 2% month on month but up around 10% year on year
– Forecast for full month remains at MOP 21.5bn, close to 2019 levels
Macau’s casino sector generated approximately MOP 7bn (US$868m) in gross gaming revenue during the first 10 days of August, according to investment bank estimates reported by Macao Daily.
This places the daily average at MOP 700m, a slight 2% decline compared with July, although still about 10% higher than the same period last year.
HSBC Research attributed the softer performance partly to a lower VIP win rate. It also noted that demand may have been affected by the city’s first black rainstorm warning of the year, issued last week.
Preliminary data from the Macau Government Tourism Office shows July’s daily average visitor arrivals at about 110,000, more than 10% higher year on year. However, non-gaming spending in the second quarter remained subdued, with overnight visitor spending falling 3% year on year and 5% quarter on quarter.
Good to know: Concerts and entertainment events, such as Eason Chan’s performances at Galaxy Macau, are expected to help offset some of the weather-related impact
Citi’s analysis indicated that the current daily average revenue of MOP 700m is slightly below July’s MOP 717m, but still above August 2023 levels. The bank maintained an optimistic outlook for the month, projecting a year-on-year increase of 9% to reach MOP 21.5bn.
This would represent about 89% of the revenue recorded in August 2019, implying an estimated daily average of MOP 690m for the remainder of the month.
Analysts believe that stable mass market performance, coupled with strong event-driven tourism, will be key to meeting these projections despite short-term volatility in VIP gaming.
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