Prediction markets, ‘Las Vegas isn’t dead’ and Japan – the best lines from MGM Resorts CEO conference

Key points:

– Hornbuckle led the 2025 Gaming & Lodging Conference from MGM Resorts International

– He covered some new problems affecting Las Vegas and where MGM stands on them

– Other topics included attracting international visitors to the US, BetMGM and the ‘death’ of Las Vegas

Conferences are a common thing in the gaming calendar, but sometimes, they offer a truly fascinating insight into the leadership, direction and potential for companies.

When Bill Hornbuckle, MGM Resorts International CEO, took to the metaphysical podium at the online 2025 Gaming & Lodging Conference, he led with one theme that reoccurred throughout the rest of his points: “For us, it’s all about diversification.”

Las Vegas isn’t dead

Recent speculation has pinned Las Vegas as gone, dead and buried, but Hornbuckle isn’t so sure. It’s a topic we explore in-depth in our upcoming September/October issue of Gambling Insider magazine…

“We ran 98% this weekend, non-stop. Las Vegas isn’t dead”, he claims. However, “compare it to 2023/24, which was stratospheric, it’s off…”

This has less to do with the gambling scene, according to him, and more to do with public transport infrastructure.

When Spirit Airlines filed for bankruptcy, something had to give within the company, and it cut 11 of its routes. Unfortunately, eight of these were in Nevada.

Fewer people commuting from California also negatively impacted the non-VIP play, especially for people who would tend to visit MGM’s Excalibur and Luxor properties.

This is something we covered earlier with the upcoming Brightline West high-speed rail service, which was hoping to deliver a better public transport service from California to Vegas but has hit construction cost difficulties.

On Vegas being ‘dead’, Hornbuckle said: “We let the narrative get away from us in the context of value… Las Vegas remains a huge value for consumers at all levels.”

To tackle this, MGM Resorts is launching a few marketing campaigns to promote Las Vegas around the US.

“We’ve taken a close look at pricing. It’s not about room rates or about the resort or parking fees. By the way, that’s not historically going to change. We value that business and we think we’re good value there!

“But, we’ve done things like you buy a $12 Starbucks coffee… or a $26 bottle of water at the Aria is the one that is resonating with me. So we are going to go back through our pricing on the things that people touch every day and matter.”

Attracting international visitors

In July, visitation was down 12% in Las Vegas, and many worried that international visitors were being put off from holidaying in the US due to the current state of the country.

Even neighbouring countries dipped, with Canada visitation off by 40% for Las Vegas.

Hornbuckle wasn’t so concerned about this point though, as the peak season to visit is February and October, “so we’ve got time to rebound and hopefully repair.”

MGM Resorts has a promotional team up there right now running an ad campaign, “making sure they feel loved, they feel welcome and that we want them and need them.” But, “there’s only so much we can do and so much we can control.”

Hornbuckle continued: “When you think about China in general, all the way back to 2018-19, we’re not back to where we were, and frankly, we won’t be. One of the broadest challenges for international travel… You can go back to 2016 and we had a $50bn international surplus. Today, we have a $50bn deficit on international travel in the US.

“And so, there is a broader concern that there is something broader going on and we as a country need to get our act together and focus on welcoming people.

“We – the collective government and the destinations – need to do a much better job with this.”

New and old friends

On Macau leading the recovery in international gambling destinations, Hornbuckle described the situation quite succinctly. In his words, Macau has 25 million annual visitors, but it’s seven or eight million people visiting three times a year.

The junketeers are now gone, but the VIPs are still coming en masse, so operators have the opportunity to try out new (or traditional, depending on how you look at it) marketing strategies.

“We know our customers, we know where you live!” He half-joked when discussing that success is mostly down to understanding where visitors are travelling from and what sort of experience they may want – more on this later.

15% of customers are now shared between BetMGM and MGM, which means there are increasing opportunities for both brands as soon as a customer is introduced to either platform.

Prediction markets

As for business priorities, Hornbuckle explained: “Operate the business is number one. We want to continue to see that clear path to half a billion dollars. There’s a lot that’s in play right now that could confuse the business or sidetrack the business into some other deviation, but that’s not smart. And so, we’re going to continue on the track we’ve got.”

“Was that a closeted shot at prediction markets?”

“… I didn’t say that, you said that.” Hornbuckle laughed at this part, as did everyone else present in the call. “MGM Resorts’ view is that prediction markets invite the federal government into a space it’s never been and it’s not a place we’d like to see this marketplace go. Full stop. We’re gonna watch, we’d be foolish not to…

“Prediction markets are the new kid. They have less than 10% share and they get beaten up a lot. If you go play on these prediction markets, you don’t even need to be that sharp to figure out what to do.

“So it’s out, it’s real, we have to contend with it and be ready for if it becomes even realer – but officially, it is not something that we endorse.”

Finally, as for LatAm: “Growth priority is still Brazil. We’ve seen enough to believe it could still be a seven or eight-billion-dollar market. It’s crowded, but we think we can steal our share.”

Japan

“We are literally in the ground. We have poured our 52nd pile as of this morning,” Hornbuckle cheered. “So, yay!”

MGM Osaka is due to open in Q3 or Q4 2030, and no expense is being spared.

“It will become one of, if not the world’s biggest casino with 750 tables, 6,000 slot machines, over 70 food and beverage outlets, a theatre for 3,500, a convention or MICE facility with just under a million sq ft of space”, Hornbuckle explained, along with descriptions of the outdoor theatre, pavilion, bars and garden area.

“But for now it’s a landfill site, so for us, we’re playing in the mud”

In order to construct the resort, 3,500 pylons were built, each going 80ft deep across the island, just to hit bedrock which was “crazy ambition”.

“If you think about Singapore as a proxy and our future… We’re gonna have half the facilities – we’ll have one, they’ll have two – we have 5x the population and twice the visitation already in Japan before we open this thing… Singapore is going to do $2.5bn in cash flow this year in Sands alone, over $3bn in the market… and you take a pachinko market that’s almost $20bn in this region alone and you put it to work here, and for us, this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity that I’m very excited by.”

“I think the death of the slot market is going to be what we all ultimately underestimate,” Hornbuckle commented, but then didn’t follow up with much more.

MGM Osaka will have 6,500 machines and only so many people a day you can let into the property, and like Singapore, there will be a fee to get in, but it will be almost two hours closer to Beijing than Macau: “and remember, we know those customers!”

Hornbuckle reckons this will be the secret opportunity at MGM Osaka. As for the transportation links for the VIPS?

“We’ll get a helicopter pad too, that will be a common thing”

“That’ll be a busy helicopter pad then!”

“Hopefully.”