Gambling Industry Insiders Offer Predictions for 2026

We heard back from some of the industry’s top names and received plenty of intriguing, thought-provoking, and hopefully valuable responses. Unsurprisingly, prediction markets were most prominent in their answers, with healthy doses of gambling taxation and calls for more innovation. 

As we read these, let’s keep in mind, of course, we all have our own biases and self-interests.

Here are 2026 predictions from our panel of gambling industry insiders:

Captain Jack Andrews, professional bettor & Unabated Founder: “We will begin to see major state-regulated operators begin to voluntarily relinquish their licenses in order to operate with less friction in the federally regulated prediction market space.”

Joe Brennan, Prime Sports co-Founder & Sports Betting Hall of Famer: “The industry has to come up with another pool in 2026. First, everyone crowded into the ‘we’re opening a sportsbook’ pool (myself included). Then everyone crowded into the ‘we’re opening a sweeps’ pool. Now everyone is crowding into the ‘we’re becoming a ‘prediction market’ pool. 

“But all of those, for the most part, were the same product, and there is a lack of innovation. In 2026, I hope people finally start to offer customers more innovation, because everyone offering the same product isn’t good for the growth of our industry (maybe I’ll give it a shot).”

Steve Brubaker, mobile gaming analyst: “Prediction markets continue to expand rapidly in numbers of providers and in volume of trades, and the licensed industry and regulators break down the components of how PMs operate to bolster legal arguments for the court cases. 

“One point that I think could gain traction is that prediction markets are not peer-to-peer enterprises or exchanges that take a rake. Rather, they are enterprises that encourage individuals to bet against the house. The ‘providing liquidity’ descriptors of how the house covers trades will be outed as the farce that it is.”

Gary Kondler, accountant, Kondler & Associates: “You will start to see a lot of gambling done more through the predication market websites, as they are growing very fast. Prediction markets are currently being viewed as a 1256 contract, which could be treated as a capital gain rather than gambling income. We are currently awaiting a lot of court rulings and IRS revenue procedures, which will help us in the tax world figure out how this income should be coded because it may not fall under the 10% reduction.”

Jeff Laniado, Director of Sales, Optimove: “Robinhood will emerge as the frontrunner to become the top gaming operator in the US by investing more heavily in prediction markets and online gaming products. With a market cap over $125 billion, they are already 3x bigger than DraftKings and FanDuel, combined.”

Jonathan Lerner, SportsStack.io: “2026 will mark the year AI starts weaving its way into sportsbook platforms, and operators slow to adapt will risk being left behind.  

“Instead of relying on static customer segments, AI will remove the need for manual data pulls and resource-intensive cohort analyses. It’ll enable a truly dynamic understanding of each bettor, updating in real-time as their behavior evolves.  

“Expect to see innovations like AI-suggested parlay legs integrated directly into bet slips and promotions personalized to each player rather than one-size-fits-all offers. The result: stronger engagement, better retention, and a measurable lift in customer lifetime value.”

Bruce Merati, Founder & Inventor, BetEx: “Litigation between states and Kalshi will escalate and dominate the sports-event contracts narrative. To compete, casinos and sportsbooks will launch Exchange Tradable Bets (ETBs) within their existing platforms, which are legal wagers placed at the state level that are tradable on a dedicated casino-operated nationwide exchange limited only to states that offer online sports betting. 

“ETBs will prevail and outperform prediction markets by complying with state laws, respecting non-OSB states, generating new operator revenue and state tax dollars, enabling larger and more liquid parlays, and giving players true market-based exit pricing.”

Laila Mintas, investor & strategic advisor: “State by state sports betting is dead and will only be used by the local casino providers such as BetMGM and Ceasars, while prediction market companies and regulation will take over the market in 2026.”

Adam Robinson, American Bettors’ Voice board member: “Kalshi and Polymarket battle for No. 1/No. 2 in sports volume and pull away from the pack in this increasingly crowded market. FanDuel and DraftKings sports prediction market volume underwhelms investors.  

“There will be zero additional clarity on the issue of sports prediction markets being classified as event contracts, and the industry will continue its vertical growth trajectory. Competition for customers will drive prediction market trading fees down to 1% on average by the end of the year. 

“The OBBB Gambling Tax Loss Provision will be repealed by April 15.  

“BetBash will once again be an epic, can’t-miss event.”

Victor Rocha, Indian Gaming Association, Conference Chair: “2026 will be worse for sweepstakes gambling, and 2025 was already a very bad year. 

“Prediction markets are losing the narrative. I expect they’ll lose more court cases, political cover & public support. What is prediction markets without sports betting?”

Mike Roselli, attorney and advisor for sports betting startups and former Chief Compliance Officer at PlayUp: “2026 will be a year where we see even more conflict and volatility – not only in the legal arena as states continue their fight against the proliferation of prediction markets, but also in the private equity arena with increased risks of major disruptive events, both at home and abroad, potentially shaking up financial markets and severely impacting short-term and long-term investment in the entire sports betting ecosystem. 

“I’m expecting continued change throughout the industry, and with that change, there will be plenty of opportunity for those who continue to innovate and push the envelope during this period of increased volatility.”

Roxy Roxborough, Las Vegas oddsmaking legend & Sports Gambling Hall of Famer: “I don’t have an optimistic forecast for 2026. The legal squabbles with prediction markets will continue throughout 2026. Taxation issues will continue to lack clarification.   Texas and California make no progress in legalization. And tribal lobbies throw monkey wrenches into progress in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma.”

Alfonso Straffon, industry analyst: “Now that DraftKings and FanDuel have launched prediction markets, we’ll get a better sense of the underlying economics come each earnings season. My prediction is that quarterly results will confirm the opportunity or threat (for whichever camp you are in!) is not as material to their top and bottom line.

“I predict a very messy tax filing season for many individuals!”

“The CFTC is going to CFTC in 2026 like it did in 2025.”

Daniel Wallach, gaming attorney: “Sweepstakes gambling enforcement will intensify in 2026. At least 8 more states will enact legislative bans against online sweepstakes casinos, although operators will explore and deploy ways to attempt to circumvent those bans. In addition, I expect that there will be more state attorney general opinions declaring that real-money casino-themed separators violate state law. …

“Kalshi will be forced by court rulings to geofence in several states, most likely in Nevada and Massachusetts. The over/under on the number of geofenced states for Kalshi in 2026 is four, a conservative estimate in my view. While this battle may ultimately head to the Supreme Court, Kalshi will continue to lose more cases than they win in the lower courts and be unsuccessful in persuading appellate courts to impose stays while those cases wind their way through the court system.”