Kalshi Super Bowl Prediction Markets Top $500M in Total Volume, Set $871M Daily Record
Kalshi’s Super Bowl markets processed roughly $500 million in trading volume on Super Bowl Sunday across contracts listed on its Super Bowl page.
Kalshi’s Super Bowl markets processed $500,171,547 in trading across Super Bowl sports-event contracts, according to company-reported figures, making it the platform’s biggest Super Bowl to date. Side markets — from halftime songs to performers and advertisers — also drew significant action.
Less than an hour before kickoff, Kalshi reported more than $325 million in volume, with trading continuing to climb throughout the game.
Winner Market Drives the Bulk of Liquidity
The Seattle–New England contract dominated activity. Seattle, the eventual winner, was the favorite for the entire contract, trading at roughly a 67–33 split.
Kalshi said the majority of trading centered on game-related markets, with heavy liquidity both before kickoff and during live play.
The sharp increase in trading near kickoff and during the game caused delays. Kalshi founder Luana Lopes Lara confirmed the issue on X.
Opening Song Turns Into a $113.5M+ Rumor Trade
The first song market ended up as the largest prop by far, with settlement volume of about $113.5 million, of which roughly $81 million traded on Super Bowl Sunday alone.
While the eventual winner led for the entire contract in the days leading up to the Super Bowl and on the day, social media rumors caused some songs to jump.
Betting guide influencers Trent Attyah and Alex Caruso posted on X that “Chambea” would be the opening song, according to an “inside source.”
The song jumped from about 2% to 12% around 1 p.m., then to 22% around 3:30 p.m. Around that time, Attyah posted, “Just listen to Chambea, close your eyes and tell me that’s not the lock of the year.”
Caruso later deleted the Chambea post, while Attyah posted: “Yo if you took Chambea please move on i’m so sorry.”
MVP and Advertisers Add Another $124M+
The market for Super Bowl advertising generated the second-highest volume among novelty markets, at $72.2 million.
Some of the companies that did advertise, such as Him & Hers, Gemini, and Pepsi, traded at 95% or above for most of the day. However, Netflix traded at around 60% for most of the day until an hour before kickoff. Amazon Prime, which ran an ad, traded around 70-85% for most of the day.
Notably, the advertisers market trailed closely behind Bad Bunny’s opening song around 1 p.m., trading at $40 million compared to $47 million. But leading up to and during the game, traders appeared more interested in the first song.
Another notable market was the game’s MVP, generating around $52.2 million in trading volume.
Leading up to the game, traders gave the eventual winner, Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III, about an 8% chance. Seahawks QB Sam Darnold led much of the way pre-kickoff with around 44% odds. Patriots QB Drake Maye traded second with around 27% odds. Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranked third before the game with around 15%.
Performers: $47M+ Traded as Cardi B and Karol G Eligibility Debate Roils Market
The “Who will perform besides Bad Bunny?” contract generated about $47.3 million in volume, making it one of the most actively traded entertainment props of the day.
Lady Gaga and Ricky Martin — both confirmed halftime performers — held probabilities above 70% for much of game day, anchoring the bulk of liquidity.
The contract, however, caught significant attention amid debates over Cardi B and Karol G. Cardi B was among the favorites to perform, trading around 40% to 50% throughout game day.
Both artists appeared on stage during the halftime show and danced during segments of the performance, but neither sang nor performed musically. Still, traders debated whether a cameo or dance appearance would qualify under Kalshi’s rules.
Kalshi’s official rulebook defines “perform.” To resolve, yes, a performer must appear on stage or in the official broadcast as a scheduled act or guest performer during another artist’s set. Commercials and background appearances do not qualify. The rules state:
“Dancing or appearing on stage without singing/playing instruments”
After the clarification, trading on both Cardi B and Karol G was suspended under Rule 13.1, removing further trading ahead of settlement.
The episode illustrates how prediction markets can price not only outcomes but also rule-interpretation risk, with traders effectively wagering on definitions as much as on the performance itself.
Traditional Game & Player Props Account for Roughly $66M
While the Super Bowl winner and entertainment contracts drove most of the day’s liquidity, traditional sportsbook-style game and player props also attracted steady trading across touchdowns, yardage, and combo outcomes.
Internal contract totals show roughly $66 million traded across those stat-based props — a small fraction of the more than $500 million Kalshi reported in overall Super Bowl contracts — highlighting how prediction traders gravitated more toward headline and novelty markets than typical sportsbook-style wagers.
Taken together, Kalshi reported more than $500 million in Super Bowl-related contracts — easily topping last year’s roughly $27 million for the same event.
Combined Volume Snapshot
Across reported figures:
- Total Super Bowl contracts: $500,171,547
- First song: $113.5M
- Traditional props: $66M
- Attendees market: $36.8M
- Pre-kickoff snapshot: $325M+
For context, Kalshi also set a new daily platform record of approximately $871 million across all events.
What It Shows
On most days, sports outcomes dominate prediction markets. But blockbuster events like the Super Bowl flip the script.
Entertainment and novelty contracts captured an unusually large share of liquidity, with rumor-driven trading and late-game volatility resembling an event-driven market more than a traditional sportsbook.
For one night, Kalshi looked less like a traditional sportsbook and more like a full trading platform.
Editor’s Note: This story has been updated to clarify how Super Bowl trading volumes are calculated. Kalshi’s reported total of $500,171,547 represents aggregate trading across all Super Bowl–related contracts on the platform, including the winner market, game props, and novelty markets. Earlier references to specific contract volumes reflected subsets of that total. The figures and breakdowns have been revised to clearly distinguish between company-reported totals and internal contract-level estimates.
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