US Soldier Charged in Polymarket Insider Trading Case Tied to Maduro Capture
A U.S. Army soldier has been charged with insider trading after allegedly using classified information on a Maduro capture operation to profit over $400,000 on Polymarket.
Federal prosecutors have charged a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier, Gannon Ken Van Dyke, with insider trading tied to the use of classified information about the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to profit on the prediction market platform Polymarket.
Prosecutors allege that Van Dyke profited more than $400,000 by wagering on Maduro-related event contracts while he was involved in planning the underlying military operation.
DOJ: “That is Clear Insider Trading”
According to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York, Van Dyke “used sensitive classified information to make wagers on Polymarket” tied to “Operation Absolute Resolve,” the U.S. mission that resulted in the capture of Maduro.
U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton said:
Prediction markets are not a haven for using misappropriated confidential or classified information for personal gain.”
He added:
The defendant allegedly violated the trust placed in him by the United States Government… all to turn a profit. That is clear insider trading and is illegal under federal law.”
Van Dyke faces three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act, each of which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison; one count of wire fraud, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison; and one count of an unlawful monetary transaction, which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison.
Allegations: Classified Intel Used to Place “YES” Bets
According to court filings, Van Dyke had direct involvement in planning the Maduro operation and had access to nonpublic classified information.
Between Dec. 27, 2025, and Jan. 2, 2026, he allegedly placed approximately $33,934 in “Yes” trades on Polymarket, predicting:
- U.S. forces entering Venezuela
- Maduro’s removal from power
- Potential U.S. military escalation
After U.S. forces apprehended Maduro in the early hours of Jan. 3, 2026, those markets resolved in his favor, netting approximately $409,881 in profits.
A separate Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) complaint similarly alleges Van Dyke accumulated more than 436,000 “Yes” shares in the “Maduro out by January 31, 2026?” contract at an average price of roughly $0.074.
CFTC: First Insider Trading Case Involving Event Contracts
The CFTC described the case as a landmark enforcement action for prediction markets.
CFTC Director of Enforcement David Miller said:
This case marks the first time the CFTC has charged insider trading involving event contracts, and the first time the CFTC has used the so-called ‘Eddie Murphy Rule’ to bring charges based on the misuse of government information.”
Chairman Mike Selig added:
I have been crystal clear that anyone who engages in fraud, manipulation, or insider trading in any of our markets will face the full force of the law.”
The regulator is seeking restitution, disgorgement, civil penalties, and trading bans.
Van Dyke Attempted to Conceal His Activity
Prosecutors further allege that Van Dyke attempted to conceal his activity to distance himself from the Polymarket accounts.
He allegedly:
- Used a VPN to access Polymarket
- Transferred proceeds through a cryptocurrency “vault.”
- Attempted to delete his Polymarket account
- Changed linked email credentials
Despite these steps, authorities say blockchain data helped identify the activity.
Polymarket’s Chief Legal Officer, Neil Kumar, said on X:
Today proved just how easy it is to find & charge criminal insider trading when markets are onchain. It’s not anonymous — you will be found.”
Market Context: Maduro Trade Drew Scrutiny
The Maduro-related contracts attracted significant attention soon after the capture of the former Venezuelan leader.
As news of the over $400,000 in profit circulated on social media and traditional news outlets, lawmakers called for tighter restrictions on prediction markets.
Less than a week later, Rep. Ritchie Torres responded by introducing the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026. The measure would prevent politicians, federal elected officials, and executive branch employees from trading prediction market contracts tied to political outcomes or government policy.
Still, questionable trades continued over other geopolitical events, such as the U.S. military action in Iran. Just hours after its announcement, blockchain data visualization firm Bubblemaps identified six accounts that reportedly generated about $1.2 million in profits on Polymarket from bets placed just hours before the bombings.
Calls for stricter regulation increased, with federal lawmakers introducing multiple bills targeting prediction markets, including the BETS OFF Act, the PREDICT Act, the End Prediction Market Corruption Act, the Prediction Markets are Gambling Act, and the Fair Markets and Sports Integrity Act.
Additionally, at the state level, the governors of California, Illinois, and New York have issued executive orders barring public employees from engaging in prediction markets. Furthermore, lawmakers in several states, including Tennessee and Kentucky, have introduced legislation to address these concerns.
Prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have sought to address those concerns by introducing new measures and safeguards against potential insider trading.
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