Prediction Market Hearings, World Cup Betting Lead Gambling Stories to Watch

Prediction market litigation remains the gambling industry’s biggest story this week, with key hearings in Washington state and the Ninth Circuit, while North Carolina could become the next battleground. Elsewhere, the World Cup’s knockout stage has already delivered record U.S. soccer viewership, which could translate into higher sportsbook betting and prediction market trading.

Here are the gambling stories to watch this week.

Prediction Market Court Calendar Intensifies as North Carolina Awaits Decision

Hearings in Washington, California

This week’s leading story is two prediction market hearings scheduled for July 10.

In Washington, the state’s motion for a preliminary injunction against Kalshi will be heard by the King County Superior Court. State officials seek to ban Kalshi from offering contracts for sports events in Washington.

After Kalshi unsuccessfully sought to keep the case in federal court, it was remanded to King County Superior Court, while its Ninth Circuit appeal remains pending.

Elsewhere, the Ninth Circuit will hear arguments in the California tribal appeal against Kalshi. The case was brought by Blue Lake Rancheria, Chicken Ranch Rancheria of Me-Wuk Indians, and the Picayune Rancheria of Chukchansi Indians, which argue Kalshi’s sports contracts violate tribal gaming rights and state gambling restrictions.

Last year, a federal district court dismissed the tribes’ claims, finding the Commodity Exchange Act preempted their state-law and IGRA arguments. Also, the Ninth Circuit denied the tribes’ request to assign their appeal to the same panel handling the consolidated Nevada case.

What to watch:

• Whether the state court grants Washington a preliminary injunction against Kalshi.
• Ninth Circuit panel’s comments, questions, and sentiment over the dispute between tribal gaming and prediction markets.

Filing Deadlines in Connecticut, Tennessee

In addition to hearings, cases in Connecticut and Tennessee face briefing deadlines this week.

In CFTC v. Connecticut, the state filed a motion to dismiss on June 3, arguing the CFTC’s lawsuit should not proceed. The CFTC responded in June, and Connecticut’s reply is due July 8.

The Tennessee appeal in the Sixth Circuit also has a July 8 deadline. Tennessee filed its opening brief in May, Kalshi responded in June, and the state’s reply brief is due this week.

Neither filing is likely to produce an immediate ruling, but both deadlines move the cases closer to the next phase.

What to watch:

Once the briefing concludes, the cases move closer to oral arguments. In the Tennessee case, which was consolidated with a separate Ohio case, the date has been set for July 30. There has not been a scheduled hearing for the Connecticut case, which could occur in the upcoming weeks.

North Carolina Could Become Next Battleground

North Carolina could also enter the prediction market fight if Gov. Josh Stein signs the state budget.

The budget includes a 6% tax on prediction market operators’ net trading fee revenue attributable to transactions conducted within the state. The proposal would make North Carolina the second state, after Illinois, to impose a tax specifically targeting prediction market operators.

If Stein signs the budget, it could lead to operators or the CFTC taking legal action, as seen in Illinois and other states that have moved against prediction markets. Stein has until July 12 to sign the budget, veto it, or allow it to become law without his signature.

What to watch:

Whether Stein signs the budget and whether the CFTC or operators challenge the tax.

Additional Federal Bills Likely

Congress has introduced new prediction market bills almost weekly in recent months, and that pace shows little sign of slowing.

Lawmakers have introduced proposals ranging from regulatory frameworks and consumer protection measures to bans on certain event contracts and restrictions on trading by government officials.

The latest bill, the No Profiting from Public Service Act, introduced last week, would prohibit federal officials and candidates from participating in prediction market contracts related to government and politics.

What to watch:

Whether more federal prediction market bills are introduced, and whether any committee hearings are scheduled for active legislation.

World Cup Momentum Continues Driving Betting Activity

USMNT Could Keep Driving Betting Interest

The U.S. Men’s National Team’s knockout-stage win over Bosnia and Herzegovina drew record U.S. soccer viewership of 33 million viewers.

The U.S. plays Belgium on July 6 for a place in the quarterfinals. Growing television audiences could translate into higher sportsbook handle and prediction market trading volume, particularly if the team delivers a strong performance. The key question is whether U.S. soccer interest translates into sustained betting and trading activity beyond marquee national-team matches.

What to watch:

A win over Belgium would send the United States into the quarterfinals and could generate another surge in television audiences and another big betting event.

Tournament Odds Keep Moving

As the tournament advances, outright winner markets are also worth watching.

While France has been the favorite from the beginning, Argentina entered the tournament with an implied chance of around 9% in some prediction markets. Good results and a favorable bracket have since moved the team into the second-favorite position.

On Kalshi and Polymarket, Argentina has recently traded in the high teens, surpassing England and Spain. Sportsbooks are showing a similar pattern. DraftKings and FanDuel list France as the clear favorite, with Argentina, England, and Spain following.

Beyond the outright winner market, betting and trading interest has grown in the Golden Boot, the Golden Ball, match props, and team-stage outcomes as the knockout rounds narrow the field.

What to watch:

Knockout-stage matches can rapidly change outright winner markets and bets. Individual player markets, including the Golden Boot and Golden Ball races, should also become more volatile.

Trading Volume Continues to Climb

While the sportsbook handle for June is not yet available, World Cup trading volume on prediction markets has grown exponentially as the tournament advances.

Kalshi’s World Cup markets have crossed the $1 billion mark. Meanwhile, Polymarket’s global platform has topped $4 billion in tournament-related trading volume, making the World Cup the most traded event ever. Before the tournament, investment bank Macquarie forecasted that the World Cup would become the largest betting event in history.

Knockout-stage matches, especially involving the U.S., Argentina, France, England, or Spain, could push those totals higher.

What to watch:

Whether knockout-stage matches can produce record daily trading and official figures from state regulators on betting volume on traditional sportsbook platforms.

Sweepstakes Casinos: More Operators Expected to Exit Indiana and Maine

Sweepstakes casino exits are likely to continue after Indiana’s ban took effect on July 1. Chumba, Stake.us, and most major sweepstakes platforms have already restricted promotional play or exited Indiana, with more likely following this week as enforcement risk increases.

Maine is next. The state’s sweepstakes casino ban takes effect July 15, giving operators another deadline to restrict access, close accounts, or adjust redemption policies. Some platforms have already left the state, with many expected to do so in the upcoming weeks.

What to watch:

Whether some operators choose not to block Indiana, and which platforms exit Maine before the July 15 deadline.

Casinos: Fourth of July Could Provide Early Demand Signal

Fourth of July is traditionally one of the busiest travel weekends of the year, making it an early test of summer casino demand in Las Vegas and Atlantic City.

Las Vegas has slowly recovered since 2025, when visitation was down 7.5% year over year compared to 2024. So far this year, visitor numbers are up by 2%, so a strong Fourth of July weekend could further help the industry recover.

Meanwhile, Atlantic City casinos have reported revenue growth in all months of 2026, except February (which was relatively flat). A strong holiday weekend and July could help the sector grapple with rising costs, inflation, and growing competition.

In 2025, Atlantic City casinos reported their best summer result in a decade, so favorable results this year could result in another record.

What to watch:

Early travel, occupancy, and visitation figures could provide the first indication of whether the holiday weekend delivered a meaningful boost for Las Vegas and Atlantic City.