BetMGM Q2 2026 Earnings: Prediction Markets and Customer Win Rates Weigh on Results
BetMGM's inability to compete against the prediction markets threat is impacting top-line growth, as net revenue grew by just 3% in Q2 2026
BetMGM, the 50/50 joint venture between MGM Resorts International and Entain, released its second-quarter 2026 business update on July 28, delivering revenue and earnings that came in below consensus forecasts.
Driven by competition from prediction market operators, a near-total wipeout of retail revenue from customer-friendly betting outcomes, and heavier player reinvestment, the operator signaled a more conservative trajectory for the remainder of the year. It has also pushed back the timing of its long-term profitability target.
For the three months ended June 30, BetMGM posted net revenue of $711 million, a 3% year-over-year increase from $692 million in Q2 2025. Adjusted EBITDA fell 14% to $74 million from $86 million.
Because BetMGM is not separately listed, there is no formal quarterly sell-side consensus. The nearest benchmark is Entain’s company-compiled consensus of July 17, which put first-half net revenue at $1.43 billion and adjusted EBITDA at $113 million.
BetMGM delivered $1.4 billion and $99 million — misses of 2% and 12%, respectively. Stripping out the reported Q1 print of $696 million implies a Q2 revenue expectation of roughly $739 million, against which the $711 million actual is a shortfall of just under 4%.
The top-line slowdown is pronounced over a broader horizon. Net revenue growth of 3% in Q2 and 4% across the first half compares with 31% growth in the second half of 2025, when BetMGM generated $1.44 billion in revenue, up from $1.1 billion a year earlier.
The arithmetic of the revised guidance is unforgiving in one direction and demanding in the other.
Reaching even the $2.9 billion floor of the full-year range requires second-half net revenue of $1.49 billion, or roughly 3% growth on H2 2025. Reaching the $3.0 billion midpoint would require about 10%.
iGaming Anchors the Business as Retail Collapses
A breakdown of BetMGM’s operating segments shows a widening divergence between its digital casino and sportsbook operations.
The engine of stability remains iGaming, where net revenue rose 8% year-over-year to $483 million from $449 million, which was close to 70% of group revenue.
Net gaming revenue per active player grew 9%. BetMGM describes itself as holding a “podium position” with 13% GGR share across its active markets, including 20% in iGaming and 8% in online sports.
Product work supported that. Exclusive title rollouts including new Game of Thrones franchise games and Hollywood-licensed slots such as Elvis Presley: Viva Las Records and Marilyn Monroe Slingo, alongside deeper integration with MGM Rewards.
Online sports told a different story. Net revenue was flat at $228 million. Handle rose 2% to $3.49 billion from $3.42 billion, and handle per active player grew 11%, but the revenue conversion did not follow.
The reason sits in the gap between gross and net hold. Gross gaming revenue margin expanded 55 basis points year-over-year to 10.3% from 9.8%, helped by tentpole events including the NBA Playoffs and FIFA World Cup.
Net gaming revenue margin, which is what actually reaches the top line after player generosity, went the other way — down 10 basis points to 6.5% from 6.6%. The spread between the two widened from 3.2 to 3.8 percentage points, a roughly 60bp increase in the cost of promotional reinvestment as a share of handle.
Retail suffered the more dramatic setback, generating effectively zero net revenue for the quarter, a 97% decline from $16 million in Q2 2025.
Management attributed the wipeout to large winning wagers from high-end customers, compounded by a structural shift in which recreational bettors have migrated to digital. At the same time, VIP play remains concentrated in the retail estate.
BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt told analysts that retail flow-through historically runs at about 50% and should normalize in the second half.
Prediction Market Threat and Promotional Pressure
The clearest theme of the release and the accompanying investor call was the competitive influence of prediction markets. Asked why revenue guidance had come down 6-7% since February, Greenblatt was direct: “The primary macro impact or primary macro impacts are prediction markets.”
That dynamic contributed to a 3% year-over-year decline in average monthly active players to 875,000 from 901,000, following a 9% contraction in Q1 2026. First-half actives were down 6% to 925,000.
“Sports betting revenue missed our expectations as handle increased 2% (Citizens est. +3.5%), as we believe prediction market companies are having an impact on new customer acquisition, thus slower handle growth for BetMGM,” Citizens analyst Jordan Bender wrote.
Management said the decline was driven by sports, with iGaming actives stable.
BetMGM has not launched a prediction markets product of its own, and Greenblatt characterized rivals’ spending in the category as commercially unjustified, describing new entrants as “investing in players in a frankly less commercially rational way” to establish a foothold.
Customer acquisition costs in iGaming ran “about 15% plus more than last year.”
On promotional spend, Greenblatt was unapologetic:
We’re not going to reduce investment and reinvestment in players. What we’re really very focused on is making sure that that investment is to the right players.”
He said the World Cup period in particular justified the outlay, with handle running at three times the level BetMGM saw for the 2022 tournament and the USA-Belgium fixture drawing more handle than any baseball or basketball playoff game.
Asked by Truist’s Barry Jonas whether prediction market bans in Nevada and Michigan might help, Greenblatt said there “would be some positive impact… for all OSB participants.”
Guidance Revisions and the $500 Million Question
Management did not change the numbers in its full-year 2026 outlook but guided expected results “towards the lower end of existing guidance ranges” of $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion in net revenue and $300 million to $350 million in adjusted EBITDA.
The range itself had already been cut once this year. The original FY2026 guidance of $ 3.1 billion to $3.2 billion, set alongside the FY2025 results in February 2026, was reduced to $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion at the Q1 stage in April.
A $2.9 billion outcome would sit around 8% below that original $3.15 billion midpoint; management characterized the reduction as 6-7%. It would also trail the $3.02 billion carried in Entain’s company-compiled consensus by roughly 4%.
Treatment of the long-term target was more consequential. BetMGM said it “remains confident in delivering Adjusted EBITDA of $500 million” but that the timing will “extend beyond current 2027 expectations,” retreat from the FY2025 and Q1 2026 releases, both of which reaffirmed 2027.
Management did not name a replacement year. Greenblatt framed the path as intact rather than abandoned, telling analysts BetMGM sees a route to $500 million from its existing footprint, assuming standard flow-through rates of about 40% to 45%.
On the second half, CFO Gary Deutsch pointed to “over 100% flow through,” reflecting marketing efficiency measures and cost reductions against modest expected revenue growth.
Market Reaction and Parent Company Dynamics
The BetMGM business update was released pre-market, and the reaction was muted. MGM Resorts closed yesterday, July 28 at $46.20, down 0.22% on the day, with no meaningful move in extended-hours trading.
MGM shares are, in any case, anchored by the $48.30-per-share cash proposal from People Incorporated, the Barry Diller-backed IAC successor, which values the group at around $18 billion and limits how far the stock can move on operational news.
Entain closed at 574.40p on July 28 and was trading at 575.20p in early dealings today, July 29, up 0.24%.
Consensus sits at Hold with an average target of $52.31. On Entain, Jefferies reaffirmed a Buy with a 1,000p target on 27 July, and consensus is Buy at 1,013p.
Citizens analysts, led by Bender, are maintaining their Market Perform rating on MGM Resorts following the BetMGM 2Q results:
We believe shares, trading at 11% our 2027E FCF yield, compared to gaming comps at 13%, represent fair value until the company can demonstrate its ability to return to growth and drive positive operating leverage.”
Attention now turns to MGM Resorts, which reports full Q2 2026 results after the close on July 29 with a conference call at 5 p.m. ET.
Wall Street will be looking for details on omnichannel conversion, capital contributions to BetMGM, the response to prediction markets, and any commentary on the People Incorporated proposal.
BetMGM Quarterly Financial Results, 2024-2026
| Period | Net revenue | YoY | Adj. EBITDA | YoY change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | $489m | — | ($132m) | — |
| Q2 2024* | $510m | — | ~$9m | — |
| Q3 2024 | $544m | — | ($16m) | — |
| Q4 2024 | $560m | — | ($106m) | — |
| FY 2024 | $2,102m | +7% | ($244m) | — |
| Q1 2025 | $657m | +34% | $22m | +$154m |
| Q2 2025 | $692m | +36% | $86m | +$77m |
| Q3 2025 | $667m | +23% | $41m | +$57m |
| Q4 2025 | $780m | +39% | $71m | +$177m |
| FY 2025 | $2,796m | +33% | $220m | +$464m |
| Q1 2026 | $696m | +6% | $25m | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $711m | +3% | $74m | (14)% |
| H1 2026 | $1,406m | +4% | $99m | (9)% |
* BetMGM reported on a semi-annual basis in 2024 and did not publish a standalone Q2 2024 release. Q2 2024 figures are derived by subtracting the reported Q1 2024 quarter from the H1 2024 total.
Note: As an unlisted 50/50 joint venture between MGM Resorts International and Entain plc, BetMGM does not issue standalone public shares or report earnings per share. Its parents disclose net revenue, adjusted EBITDA, handle, hold and active player metrics quarterly. BetMGM labeled the profit measure “EBITDA” through FY2025 and “Adjusted EBITDA” from Q1 2026; restated prior-period values are unchanged.
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