Key points:
- Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for January 2025 was MOP 18.25bn ($2.27bn), a 5.6% decline year-on-year
- December 2024 GGR fell 2.0% to MOP 18.2bn, marking the first monthly decline in two years
- The Macau Government forecasts MOP 240bn in GGR for 2025, but analysts remain divided on growth expectations
The Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported that total gaming revenue for January 2025 stood at MOP 18.25bn ($2.27bn), reflecting a 5.6% year-on-year decline.
The decrease marks the second consecutive month of year-on-year losses, following December 2024’s 2.0% decline.
The January 2025 figure remains slightly higher than December, though analysts had anticipated a more modest drop due to the seasonal lead-up to the Lunar New Year.
The decline has raised concerns about Macau’s recovery trajectory, with factors such as reduced VIP play, a changing regulatory environment and shifting economic conditions in China influencing market performance.
Market performance and regulatory challenges
Macau’s full-year GGR for 2024 reached MOP 226.78bn, representing a 23.9% increase. However, the final months of the year showed signs of slowing momentum, with December marking the first monthly decline in two years.
One of the major contributing factors to Macau’s shifting gaming landscape has reportedly been the introduction of stricter gaming laws. The new legal framework has curtailed the role of junket operators, which reportedly previously played a major role in attracting high-stakes VIP gamblers to the region.
The Macau Government’s prohibition on soliciting customers from mainland China has also led to a restructuring of casino operations, as gaming companies adjust to a reliance on mass-market and premium-mass players rather than VIP clientele.
Despite these regulatory pressures, the Macau Government has projected a full-year GGR of MOP 240bn ($29.9bn) for 2025, suggesting an anticipated 5.8% growth compared to 2024 levels. However, analysts remain divided on whether this target is achievable.
VIP declines and growth in mass market segments
A key structural change in Macau’s gaming market has been the continued decline of VIP gaming, with the mass market segment now accounting for over 77% of total gaming revenue.
The shift toward mass-market gaming has been further reinforced by regulatory changes that prohibit junkets from sharing casino profits and limit their role to commission-based operations.
Casino operators are also adapting to changes in how players move money into Macau, as the region’s authorities continue to tighten oversight on illicit capital flows.
Good to know: The recent crackdown on underground money exchange networks has led to a resurgence in the use of Macau’s Union Pay pawn shops for money movement, a factor that some analysts believe could support market stability in 2025
Looking ahead: industry growth vs. challenges
Despite the January decline, analysts believe that Macau’s overall gaming industry remains on a stable footing, with moderate long-term growth expected.
However, several factors could impact revenue trajectories in 2025:
- Continued pressure on VIP gaming, as high-roller play remains well below pre-pandemic levels.
- The evolving regulatory environment, with Macau authorities expected to introduce further measures to strengthen financial oversight and compliance.
- Macau’s ability to attract new tourists and increase visitation from China, particularly given improved visa policies and increasingly positive sentiment toward the city from Chinese authorities.
Past market trends and comparisons
The latest revenue figures follow December 2024’s 2.0% decline, marking the first negative monthly growth since 2022.
Macau’s strongest months for growth in 2024 were at the beginning of the year, with January, February and March each recording revenue increases above 50% compared to 2023. However, growth slowed significantly in the latter half of the year, averaging 16% per month from April onward.
While Macau is yet to return to pre-pandemic revenue levels of MOP 300bn per year, its closest point to that figure came in May 2024, when monthly GGR reached MOP 20.2bn ($2.53bn).