Prediction Market Trading Volumes Jump as Trump Pledges to Release ‘Alien Files’
Do Aliens exist? While the answer remains unclear, the question saw a significant jump in prediction market trading volume after President Donald Trump pledged to release the files.
On both Kalshi and Polymarket, markets on the existence of aliens saw a trading volume surge after President Trump announced early this morning on Truth Social that he would direct the government to prepare and release the relevant files.
Traders React to Trump Announcement
Just two weeks ago, Kalshi’s trading volume on the question of whether the US government will confirm the existence of aliens was roughly $1.3 million; it jumped to over $5 million today, Friday, Feb. 20.
Overall, Kalshi’s ‘alien’ market saw low trading volume throughout January, gradual increases over the last few weeks, and then a significant spike yesterday. Indeed, over the last 24 hours, Kalshi traders moved over $1 million, moving the odds from 17% to as high as 28%. As of this Friday afternoon writing, the likelihood sits around 21%.
Certainly, there’s no guarantee releasing the files will lead to an official confirmation that aliens exist before the year is over. For it to settle as yes, Kalshi requires that a government official “definitively” confirms their existence.
“If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2027.”
At Polymarket, the same question has similar trading volumes. Right now, the market suggests there’s a 17% chance the US will reveal that aliens exist this year. Last week, the likelihood stood at 9%.
And, like Kalshi, Polymarket requires an official government declaration to settle in the affirmative.
“This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026.”
Obama’s ‘They’re Real’ Claim Preceded Trump Post
As noted, the trading surge followed Trump’s announcement that he would direct the government to “begin the process of identifying and releasing” files on aliens.
The Truth Social post followed a recent conversation between former President Barack Obama and political commentator and podcaster Brian Tyler Cohen. Obama told Cohen of aliens, “They’re real, but I haven’t seen them.”
Obama added:
“There’s no underground facility unless there’s this enormous conspiracy and they hid it from the president of the United States.”
Before his announcement, Trump accused Obama of revealing classified information when the former president said “aliens are real” on the podcast.
As reported by the BBC, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, “He’s not supposed to be doing that. He made a big mistake.”
However, there is no indication that Obama’s response relied on classified information.
Asked whether he, too, believes aliens are real, Trump answered, “Well, I don’t know if they’re real or not.”
Only a few hours later, Trump announced his intentions to release the files.
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