Macquarie: US Represents Just 5% of Global World Cup Betting Volume
The investment bank says the U.S. market remains too small to materially affect global World Cup wagering forecasts despite expanded legal sports betting access.
Additional analysis from Macquarie suggests that the U.S. will account for only about 5% of global betting volume during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Last week, the investment bank estimated the global betting volume to reach $50 billion, making the tournament the largest betting event in history.
The estimate helps explain why Macquarie maintained a per-match forecast of roughly $0.5 billion. The figure is similar to the 2022 tournament, despite broader legal sports betting access in the U.S., North American hosting, and the continued growth of products such as same-game parlays, live betting, and player props.
“Our per-match forecast of $500 million is a global forecast,” Chad Beynon, Senior Gaming, Lodging & Theatres Analyst at Macquarie, told Gambling Insider.
Since we estimate that the US only represents ~5% of legal global betting volume during the World Cup, even if we assumed 40% growth in the US, it would be quite insignificant.”
Beynon added that the expanded tournament schedule could also dilute wagering activity per match:
Since there are more games being played, volume per match is likely more spread out over the course of the tournament, which could have a downward impact on per-match volumes.”
Forecast Based on Legal Sports Betting Activity
Macquarie also provided additional detail on the methodology behind its $35 billion estimate of betting volume for the 2022 FIFA World Cup.
According to Beynon, the figure is based on legal sports betting activity only and excludes offshore wagering.
We estimated close to $600 billion-$700 billion total of legal sports betting wagers in 2022 (all sports),” Beynon said. “We assume that during the World Cup time period (~5 weeks), 50% of total wagers placed globally will be on World Cup games.”
Prediction Markets Excluded From Forecast
Macquarie also confirmed that its World Cup wagering forecast does not include prediction markets. The firm said it has not developed a forecast for World Cup-related trading volume on prediction-market platforms.
However, Beynon suggested prediction markets are more likely to attract users in states without legal online sportsbooks than existing sportsbook customers.
We believe the vast majority of their sports growth will continue to come from ~40% of the US population that does not have access to legal sports betting apps, as the products are still quite differentiated,” Beynon said.
“Our base case is that users who are already accustomed to [online sports betting] apps will stick with them.”
Macquarie’s broader World Cup forecast projects a 2%-5% uplift in operator EBITDA in 2027. It identifies Flutter Entertainment, Super Group, and Rush Street Interactive among the companies best positioned to benefit from the tournament.
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