Zuckerberg Bets on “Arena” as Meta Explores Prediction Markets
Prediction markets may soon face a competitor with something neither Kalshi nor Polymarket possesses: direct access to billions of users worldwide.
Mark Zuckerberg has reportedly directed a small team to build a standalone smartphone app modeled on prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, potentially giving Meta a foothold in one of the fastest-growing segments of online wagering.
The experimental project, known internally as “Arena,” would initially allow users to forecast real-world outcomes using a points-based system rather than real-money wagers. The New York Times reported Tuesday that two employees familiar with the plans described the app as a top priority inside the company.
By avoiding real-money wagering at launch, Meta could sidestep many of the regulatory battles currently facing prediction market operators in the U.S. It would also avoid restrictions that have targeted the sector in jurisdictions such as Europe and India.
Unlike existing prediction market operators, Meta would not need to build an audience from scratch. Meta plans to leverage existing audiences on Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp to promote Arena upon launch. These apps collectively reach more than 3.5 billion daily active users.
Meta Returns to Prediction Markets
This isn’t the first time Meta has attempted to enter the prediction market space. It launched Forecast in 2020, an app that allowed users to predict unfolding events using a points system. However, Meta shut it down in 2022.
The prediction market sector has exploded over the past couple of years. The combined monthly trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket reached roughly $24 billion in April. That’s nearly five times higher than the $5 billion in September 2025.
In April, investment firm Bernstein estimated that the sector could reach $1 trillion in annual volume by 2030.
Arena would fit nicely into Meta’s existing games footprint, such as the instant and social games that Facebook offers. Meta advertising rules also allow promotion for social casinos, provided players can’t win money or anything of monetary value.
The company allows real-money gambling ads too, but only from authorized advertisers and only when those advertisers have legal permission to operate in a given market.
Meta’s Gambling Advertisment Scrutiny
Arena would arrive as Meta continues to face scrutiny over gambling-related content appearing across its platforms.
A Reuters investigation in November 2025 reported that Meta projected roughly 10% of its 2024 revenue, about $16 billion, came from ads for scams and banned goods. This category includes unlicensed online casinos.
According to that reporting, Meta’s automated systems would flag an advertiser only when the company’s models assigned at least 95% odds of fraud.
Regulators in France, the U.K., Malaysia, and Brazil have all pressed Meta over unlicensed gambling promotions.
Most recently, a Netherlands trade group sued the company and filed a complaint with the European Commission over what it alleges are Meta’s failures to prevent large-scale promotion of illegal gambling operators on Facebook and Instagram.
The group claims that illegal operators accounted for over 95% of the gambling ads targeting Dutch people on Meta platforms.
Prediction Markets Face Regulatory Uncertainty
Arena would also launch into a very unsettled regulatory environment. The CFTC proposed rules earlier this month that would bar contracts tied to war, assassinations, and terrorism. However, the rules leave unresolved broader questions surrounding sports-event contracts.
Several states have taken legal action arguing that prediction markets constitute gambling products that should fall under state regulatory authority. The cases remain pending, with industry observers suggesting the issue could ultimately reach the Supreme Court.
Whether Arena remains a free-to-play forecasting product or eventually expands into real-money markets may depend in part on how that legal and regulatory battle unfolds.
Gambling Insider delivers the latest industry news, in-depth features, and operator reviews that you can trust. Our team combines rigorous editorial standards with decades of specialized expertise to ensure accuracy and fairness. We are committed to delivering clear, impartial, and dependable coverage across the global gambling sector.
