Macquarie: Prediction Markets Topped $50B in June as World Cup Drives Record Trading
A new Macquarie report estimates Kalshi accounted for roughly two-thirds of prediction market trading in June as the FIFA World Cup accelerated mainstream adoption.
Prediction markets generated more than $50 billion in trading volume during June, according to a new report from Macquarie Equity Research. The figures mark another record month for the sector as FIFA World Cup trading accelerated and strategic partnerships expanded across the industry.
Kalshi remained the clear market leader. The platform generated approximately $33 billion in monthly volume, accounting for 65% of the trading volume. Notably, Kalshi increased its market share from an estimated 57% in May. June’s activity implies a prediction market industry operating at an annualized rate of more than $500 billion.
Macquarie said the surge further reinforces sports as the leading use case for prediction markets, accounting for roughly half of all activity on the platforms.
World Cup Trading Fuels Industry Growth
The report’s findings build on Macquarie’s earlier estimate that the 2026 FIFA World Cup would generate more than $50 billion in global wagering activity, making it the largest betting event in history. That forecast excluded prediction market activity.
Analysts said June’s unprecedented trading volumes were largely driven by World Cup activity. They highlighted the increasingly mainstream role prediction markets are playing in sports-related speculation.
Macquarie also highlighted the partnership between FIFA’s official prediction market partner, ADI Predictstreet, and Kalshi. The analysts argued the deal likely says more about ADI’s need for liquidity than Kalshi’s need for marketing.
ADI appears to have acquired a valuable asset (FIFA rights) but lacked the user base and liquidity to fully monetize it,” the report stated.
Gambling Insider recently reported that ADI Predictstreet generated approximately 126,000 trades during its first 18 days of operation. The figures underscore the challenge of building liquidity despite securing one of the most prominent partnerships in global sports.
By comparison, World Cup Winner markets on industry leaders Kalshi and Polymarket‘s global platform have generated approximately $1 billion and $4 billion in trading volume, respectively.
Partnerships and New Entrants Expand Prediction Market Ecosystem
Macquarie said strategic partnerships and new product launches increasingly support the industry’s “picks-and-shovels” infrastructure layer.
The report highlighted several recent developments beyond Kalshi and ADI. Polymarket partnered with Liga MX and Genius Sports, while DraftKings launched its proprietary prediction market exchange, DKeX.
According to Macquarie, DKeX represents another step toward the convergence of sportsbooks and prediction markets. The analysts said DraftKings increasingly views prediction markets as a strategic long-term product extension rather than simply a defensive response to Kalshi.
Macquarie also pointed to Robinhood-backed Rothera’s rapid emergence. Analysts noted that the platform had already generated billions of dollars in World Cup-related trading volume and captured meaningful market share within weeks of launching. The analysts suggested that distribution may be becoming just as important as pricing and liquidity in determining the industry’s long-term winners.
Analysts also noted that Meta is reportedly exploring a standalone prediction market application. According to reports, the platform would initially use a points-based system rather than real-money trading. Macquarie said the move underscores growing mainstream interest in the sector and could accelerate mass-market adoption.
Political Risk Remains a Key Question
Despite the sector’s rapid expansion, Macquarie cautioned that the industry’s regulatory outlook remains highly dependent on political developments.
The report noted that the Trump administration’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission has proposed a formal framework for prediction markets that would prohibit contracts involving war, terrorism and assassinations. The framework largely preserves sports-event contracts.
However, the analysts warned that a future Democratic administration could take a more restrictive approach toward prediction markets and potentially strengthen state regulatory authority.
The proposal underscores that PM have benefited significantly from the Trump administration’s support,” the report said. “A future Democratic administration could take a more restrictive view, while strengthening state regulatory authority, leaving industry’s regulatory outlook sensitive to political changes.”
The comments come as prediction market operators continue to battle a growing number of states over whether sports-event contracts constitute federally regulated derivatives or unlawful gambling products.
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