Nuanced Testimony, Terry Duffy’s Misgivings, Netflix Prediction Market Documentary Highlight This Week’s Gambling Industry Bingos & Busts
Testimony before a House subcommittee ends up on either side of our weekly ledger, as we recap top headlines from the gambling industry this week.
With the World Cup in our rearview mirror and football season still a few weeks away, sports bettors and bookmakers are able to take a bit of a summer breather. The gambling industry, though, knows no such breaks these days, particularly as it pertains to prediction markets. States keep trying to defend their turf, and the competitive landscape continues to take shape.
Yes, the global soccer tournament has dominated this space for the last month-and-a-half, but with all the chips counted, we’ll try to put a bow on just how big the event was from a betting perspective.
Elsewhere, Kalshi suffers its latest loss in court, the CME/FanDuel partnership goes sideways, and Netflix is set to debut a documentary about prediction markets.
Let’s start our review of the week, though, with a few observations from Tuesday’s congressional hearing:
Bingo: Former CFTC Attorney Offers Nuanced Perspective on Prediction Markets
While there is too much to unpack here from testimony before the US House Agriculture Subcommittee on Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development, we applaud Robert Schwartz for his measured point of view about prediction markets. The former CFTC General Counsel, now a partner in the Commodities & Derivatives Practice at Morgan, Lewis & Bockius, acknowledged that financial exchanges offering sports contracts is a new concept but stressed debate over certain asset classes has occurred throughout history. Futures and options, he noted, have often been characterized as gambling. He didn’t necessarily love the CFTC’s “extraordinary flex” in directing Kalshi to defy a Michigan state court order, but, “In a more fundamental sense,” Schwartz said, “we have been here before,many times, literally over the course of centuries.”
Bust: Holes Poked in AGA’s Claims
American Gaming Association Senior VP Christopher Cylke testified, per the trade group’s estimates, that prediction markets have caused states and tribes to lose over $1.2 billion in tax revenue so far. Sure, the data is hard to quantify, but by most indications, business is growing for sportsbooks, casinos and tribes. And research continues to support the notion that prediction market volume is being largely driven in states that have yet to legalize sports betting. According to an Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) report in April, 69% of volume on the exchanges is coming in non-regulated states, 43% in California and Texas.
Bingo: World Cup Business Excels
Okay, so World Cup betting has earned plenty of bingos in our weekly ledger, but here are some final points after Spain’s victory over Argentina:
- Kalshi, of course, was the big winner, transacting nearly $14 billion in World Cup volume, according to DeFi Rate’s Mike Breen, and claiming to Reuters $27 billion in volume and three million new users. By any measure, Kalshi blew past expectations during the biggest event in its history.
- Sportico’s Dan Bernstein wrote Robinhood’s Rothera was perhaps the “biggest development” when it comes to prediction markets and the World Cup. The exchange, freshly launched in June, surpassed Crypto.com for third place in notional volume in July, grabbing 4.6% market share for the month through the final.
- Prediction markets don’t get all the glory, as lots of World Cup bets flowed through sportsbook apps, too. DraftKings trumpeted it wrote over two million wagers for the final and saw a 650% increase in total bets from the 2022 tournament. Per SBC Americas, BetMGM Senior Trading Manager Christian Cipollini declared the event “record-breaking at BetMGM on many fronts,” and FanDuel said Spain vs. Argentina was the “most bet-on soccer match” in its history.
Bust: Another Legal Setback for Kalshi
Prediction markets’ record in cases involving preliminary injunctions or restraining orders falls to 4-19 with Monday’s ruling in Washington against Kalshi. In granting the state the PI, Judge John McHale’s decision was unequivocal – and in line with what many around the industry are thinking: Kalshi operates and profits from an “online betting platform,” he wrote. While OG, Crypto.com’s prediction market platform, responded by filing a lawsuit to stop Washington Attorney General Nicholas Brown from carrying the injunction over to its exchange, it’s clear the legal momentum is in the states’ favor.
Bust: CME’s Duffy Gets Cold Feet
Outgoing CME Group CEO Terry Duffy appears to be having second thoughts about his company’s link-up with FanDuel. In CME’s Q2 earnings call, Duffy acknowledged “a lot of these prediction markets on sports are gambling” and stressed the company wants no part of the legal battle that will likely end up in front of the Supreme Court. While Duffy remains keen on markets tied to “economic outcomes and things of that nature”, he specifically called out parlays, among the products CME has self-certified, as reckless for financial exchanges to offer. FanDuel Predicts is barely making a dent in the prediction market landscape. Should things be going better, might Duffy be singing a different tune?
Bingo: Resorts World NYC Breaks New Ground
New York City’s first commercial casino is moving forward with a $5.5 billion expansion that will set it apart as the largest gaming resort in the country. After opening on April 28, it’s fair to say things are going well for Resorts World New York City, as owner Genting Americas East boasts it’s generated $170 million in tax revenue in the resorts’ first three months. The new development will add two million square feet of space to the current one million, including 1,600 hotel rooms, the “Kenny the Jet Sports and Media Complex” three years ahead of schedule, a 7,000-seat arena in a central plaza, and a parking garage, creating 10,000 jobs in the process.
Bust: Wisconsin Election Law a Bridge Too Far
If you bet on elections, your right to vote will be revoked. In fact, you could be charged with a felony. Such is the state of Wisconsin’s warning to residents. It’s the latest salvo in Wisconsin’s tussle with prediction markets, and while we understand the state wanting to protect its gaming laws and curtail potential insider trading by government officials, threatening voters who partake in election-related markets is a gross overreach.
Bust: Netflix Prediction Market Docu Trailer Raises Eyebrows
You shouldn’t judge a book by its cover and all that, and we’ll revisit this topic next week after watching the entire show, but vibes based on the trailer for a Netflix prediction market documentary are not good. Time-stamped July 19, 2026, the date of the World Cup final, and shot in Nevada, where Kalshi is banned from offering sports, the Instadoc episode features a group of high-rolling bros (touts?) gathering at the Mirage Mega Mansion to bet and watch the World Cup final. “The guys in this house made millions of dollars on prediction markets, probably eight figures just over the course of the World Cup,” crows one member of the group, a claim that warrants a hefty dose of skepticism. They appear not to be pro bettors or traders, rather gamblers (touts?) selected for entertainment value. “The Prediction Games” drops Sunday, and we’re not optimistic.
Gambling Insider delivers the latest industry news, in-depth features, and operator reviews that you can trust. Our team combines rigorous editorial standards with decades of specialized expertise to ensure accuracy and fairness. We are committed to delivering clear, impartial, and dependable coverage across the global gambling sector.
