PENN Crushes Forecasts as iCasino Growth Jumps 15% YoY

PENN Entertainment beat on its top- and bottom-lines in Q1 2026 results released this morning. Total revenue of $1.779 billion handily blew out of the water the consensus forecast of $1.745 billion. 

Although the company reported an official GAAP loss of $2.8 million, its adjusted EPS smashed expectations, beating the $0.06 forecast by 83% to $0.11. 

While consolidated adjusted EBITDA ($265.8 million) at first sight looks like a big shortfall (-41%) against the $450.7 million EBITDAR-heavy forecast, the underlying Retail Segment Adjusted EBITDAR of $471.4 million was well ahead of the $459 million street consensus. That equates to a 33.2% margin.

Q1 2026 revenue increased 6.4% year over year from $1.67 billion in Q1 2025. 

iGaming Powering Revenues as Break-Even Comes Within Sight

Critically for the business, which has its roots in land-based casinos, the interactive segment is showing huge improvement, which should see PENN sitting pretty to meet its 2026 break-even targets.

Revenue in the interactive segment totaled $358.3 million, driven by ~15% year-over-year iCasino growth and record monthly results in March.

Although the iGaming business reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $10.8 million, the loss was slightly wider than the $8.3 million projected. The loss should not detract from what is an impressive improvement compared to the $89 million loss in the same quarter of 2025. 

All eyes will now be on how this sets up PENN to build on this momentum in the run-in to the launch of the regulated market in Alberta, Canada, this July.

CEO and President Jay Snowden, commenting on the results in written comments accompanying the results, said:

Our Interactive segment delivered a meaningful adjusted EBITDA improvement year-over-year, which marks the first full quarter under our realigned digital strategy. 

“iCasino revenue growth of approximately 15% year-over-year was driven by the continued momentum of standalone iCasino, which notably achieved record quarterly revenue in the first quarter and record monthly revenue in March. 

“The trends we are seeing provide us with confidence in the trajectory of the business and upcoming launch in Alberta.”

PENN Looks Ready To Roll in Alberta, While Illinois Soaks up Demand

On July 13, 2026, Alberta is officially transitioning from a strict government monopoly to an open, regulated, and competitive online gambling and sports betting market. PENN is positioning itself to be one of the major winners from the Alberta opening.

Alberta’s New iGaming Laws come into force on July 13, 2026, and are a response to the growth of offshore sites, which today account for some 70% of the iGaming market in the Canadian province.

PENN is leaning heavily into this expansion. It is planning to launch its flagship Canadian brand, theScore Bet, from day one. 

Meanwhile, the core land-based casino business has again proved its resilience despite local competitors snapping at its heels. The retail segment rang up $1.4 billion in revenue.

On that, the recently relocated Hollywood Casino Joliet in Illinois, which opened in August 2025, is delivering strong results. It achieved record slot and table volumes in Q1 by meeting previously unmet demand.

Hollywood Casino Joliet opened in August 2025 and is likely a top contributor to Q1 2026 outperformance. The state-of-the-art land-based facility is located at the intersection of I-80 and Route 59.

Snowden mentioned in his written comments that there had been increased visitation and higher spend per visit across the company portfolio. 

Leadership explicitly highlighted strength in the West segment, thanks to robust performance by the M Resort’s new hotel tower and Ameristar Black Hawk. The news suggests PENN’s development investments are yielding the hoped-for returns, which should help to insulate the firm from localized regional competitive pressures.

In the conference call Barry Jonas from Truist Securities quizzed CEO Showden on how big promotional spend will be for Alberta, expressing concern about a potential race to the bottom for customer acquisition.

Snowden was clear: “Barry, we aren’t going to repeat the mistakes the industry made in New York or Ohio. We have theScore media app actively engaging hundreds of thousands of Albertans every day.

Our customer acquisition cost (CAC) will be a fraction of our competitors because we are converting existing readers into bettors, not buying them off television ads. We expect Alberta to be accretive to margins much faster than a standard state launch.”

However, in guidance it was mentoined that the company expects to see a $20 million chunk taken out of adjusted earnings because of the costs of the Alberta launch.

PENN is Playing Defense in Louisiana, and It’s Working For Margins

In Louisiana, PENN is in defensive mode. Properties such as L’Auberge Lake Charles and Margaritaville Bossier City have successfully maintained their premium status as regional destinations. 

The company has focused on elevating customer service, improving rooms, and adopting a disciplined approach to controlling costs. As a result, PENN has been able to hold onto strong EBITDAR margins across the Deep South despite strong competition in a saturated market.

Another crucial area for shareholders to keep tabs on is how deleveraging is shaping up. Judging by the figures shared today, management continues to be actively executing on its liquidity and capital plans.

PENN has issued $600 million of unsecured notes (due 2031 at 6.75%). It is using the net proceeds to repay revolver borrowings directly.

Elsewhere, it has amended its credit agreement to refinance and extend its revolving credit facility and Term Loan A.

In another major development, it has safeguarded total liquidity of $1.7 billion, including $708 million in cash. PENN, as a result of these moves, has reduced its net debt to $2.2 billion. 

The company says its improvements in leverage and liquidity metrics keep it on track to continue reducing lease-adjusted net leverage as the year progresses.

Does PENN Have the Resilience and Guile To Fend Off Prediction Markets? 

PENN stock was up 15% at $ 16.95 at the open after investors absorbed upbeat mood music on the conference call. Like its peers, PENN has an eye over its shoulder when it comes to prediction market leaders Kalshi and Polymarket. Last year, Snowden characterized them as an “existential” threat.

However, management didn’t have much to say on that this quarter, but they will undoubtedly have been cheered by the introduction of a bipartisan bill in Congress in late March 2026 to clamp down on the disruptors. 

The ‘Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act’ aims to ban sports-related contracts on platforms like Kalshi.

Prediction markets aside, and with the ESPN partnership and Barstool Sports debacles behind it, PENN investors have a lot to feel comfortable about as the business continues to expand and bear down on its debt.

PENN Entertainment Quarterly Performance (2025–2026)

Quarter	Metric	Actual Result	Consensus Forecast	Beat/Miss Indicator (% Diff)
Q1 2025	Net Revenue	$1.67 B	$1.71 B	🔴 ▼ Miss (-2.34%)
	Adj. EPS	-$0.25	-$0.29	🟢 ▲ Beat (+13.79%)
	Adj. EBITDA	$183.0 M*	$198.5 M	🔴 ▼ Miss (-7.81%)
Q2 2025	Net Revenue	$1.77 B	$1.73 B	🟢 ▲ Beat (+2.31%)
	Adj. EPS	$0.10	-$0.04	🟢 ▲ Beat (+350.00%)
	Adj. EBITDA	$236.1 M	$265.2 M	🔴 ▼ Miss (-10.97%)
Q3 2025	Net Revenue	$1.72 B	$1.73 B	🔴 ▼ Miss (-0.58%)
	Adj. EPS	-$0.22	-$0.10	🔴 ▼ Miss (-120.00%)
	Adj. EBITDA	$200.8 M*	$215.4 M	🔴 ▼ Miss (-6.78%)
Q4 2025	Net Revenue	$1.81 B	$1.76 B	🟢 ▲ Beat (+2.84%)
	Adj. EPS	$0.07	-$0.23	🟢 ▲ Beat (+130.43%)
	Adj. EBITDA	$225.8 M	$218.6 M	🟢 ▲ Beat (+3.30%)
Q1 2026	Net Revenue	$1.779 B	$1.7445 B	🟢 ▲ Beat (+1.98%)
	Adj. EPS	$0.11	$0.06	🟢 ▲ Beat (+83.33%)
	Adj. EBITDA	$265.8 M	$450.7 M**	🔴 ▼ Miss (-41.02%)

Notes: *Q1 and Q3 2025 Adjusted EBITDA figures are estimated based on reported segment EBITDAR less corporate expenses and rent payments, to align with full-year audited results of $830.1 million. **Q1 2026 EBITDA: The $450.7M consensus was derived heavily from expected Property EBITDAR. PENN’s actual reported Retail Segment Adjusted EBITDAR came in at $471.4M (a beat against the $459M street expectation), but consolidated EBITDA factors in rent, corporate expenses, and interactive losses, resulting in $265.8M on a consolidated basis.