Key points:
- Casino legalisation may expand informal economy and weaken governance
- Recovery expected only in 2026 due to trade tensions and structural weaknesses
- Long-term growth threatened by reliance on exports and weak productivity
The Governor of the Bank of Thailand, Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, has cautioned that legalising casinos could pose a risk to the country’s economic stability, particularly as Thailand continues to face structural challenges and delayed recovery prospects.
In a recent address outlining the country’s economic outlook, Suthiwartnarueput voiced concern that introducing casinos into the formal economy could further expand grey economic activity. He stated that such a move would complicate enforcement efforts and risk undermining governance, particularly at a time when fiscal credibility is under increased international scrutiny.
His remarks follow the Government’s ongoing deliberation over proposals to permit casinos as part of a wider entertainment complex model. While some advocates have pointed to potential revenue from tourism and investment, Suthiwartnarueput warned that the social and regulatory costs may outweigh short-term benefits. He also highlighted the risk of money laundering and limited oversight, which could weaken investor confidence and long-term reform efforts.
Suthiwartnarueput described the country’s recovery path as a prolonged V-shaped trajectory. He attributed the delay in economic rebound to external pressures, including the trade dispute between the United States and China, and internal weaknesses in manufacturing, tourism and small business competitiveness. He estimated that Thailand’s economy may only begin to recover in 2026.
Rather than relying on fiscal handouts or large-scale stimulus, Suthiwartnarueput called for structural reforms, including support for foreign investment, regulatory streamlining and the shift towards value-added services. He reiterated his opposition to the Government’s digital wallet scheme and stressed that long-term growth would depend on addressing deep-rooted inefficiencies.
He also responded to Moody’s recent downgrade of Thailand’s credit outlook, noting that greater attention is being paid to the country’s institutional strength and economic governance.
