Five years later and the future of US sports wagering

The fifth anniversary of the US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn PASPA came and went on 14 May. To celebrate the milestone, USBettingReport.com conducted a study to determine which states are performing best within the legal sports betting market.

This time next year, do you see any new states growing?
 Ohio certainly looks like a promising state given how its performed through the first quarter of the year, and Massachusetts certainly looks like a strong market as mobile wagering launches there.

Do you think New Jersey will stay at the top of the list, or do you see another region overtaking the Garden State?
 New Jersey weathered the storm after the New York launch last year. Given the size of its market and the amount of choices available, they will be hard to top. But I think states like Colorado and Arizona have potential – as does New York.

What states do you think will take over the leaderboard this time next year once (potentially) more states have been legalised? (How about Ohio?)
 As I mentioned above, I think Massachusetts and Ohio will be strong, along with Arizona and Colorado. I was surprised to see Iowa rank as highly as it did, but few states have more licensed operators. When you factor that with low taxes and strong public funding for PG/RG education and services, it shows they have a very healthy market there.

Why do you think the bettor win rate is highest in Wyoming and Pennsylvania? (93.82%/93.75%)
 It could be a combination of things. I think Pennsylvania’s rate may be tied to the Eagles’ run to the Super Bowl this past season. I wish Wyoming and Pennsylvania officials would include more data about the types of bets being made, so we could see if they’re playing parlays as much as bettors in other states. Only a few states, like Illinois and Indiana, show wagering activity by sport and parlay. It’s something I wish more states would report.

Why do you think New York has such a low amount of funding per capita on problem gambling ($0.353) but a significantly high tax rate compared to other states?
 In reality, the state has (a higher amount of funding per capita). The data has not had a chance to properly reflect that. New York’s problem gambling funding numbers should rise as the state is putting more money into problem gambling services and education. The PG funding data available was from 2021, and through the first full fiscal year of mobile sports betting (April 2022 to March 2023), the state put $6m into PG/RG initiatives. That’s on top of other state funding for those services.

What states do you think could legalise in the next five years and do you think they would they be high in the rankings? What are your thoughts on CA, Texas and Florida in particular?
 Of the remaining states, I think Missouri has the best chance – especially if its pursued through a referendum rather than going through the legislature. I also believe North Carolina is close to legalising full statewide sports betting. Florida is a complex issue given the ongoing federal lawsuit over the states’ compact with the Seminole Tribe of Florida. Even when the DC Circuit Court of Appeals panel renders its decision in the case, that won’t be the end of the matter – as the losing side will appeal. That process might take a couple years before reaching a resolution. California and Texas have political issues that complicate legalisation in those states.
 Tribal gaming nations have significant influence in California and, depending on how the Florida case is resolved, that could impact how and when sports betting is launched there. In Texas, you have conservative leaders in the legislature, namely the state Senate, that are the main obstacle. For the most part, though, the issue has never really been discussed in that chamber. Now that the state House has shown the ability to pass sports betting legislation, I think there will be more of a push to get senators behind legalisation. However, with the legislature meeting just once every other year, it will mean supporters there are looking to at least 2025 for passage.

How come the smaller states at the bottom of the chart (North Carolina, Washington, New Mexico, North Dakota and Wisconsin) have no stats for handle per capita/ win rate and tax rate?
 Those states are tribal gaming states, which do not have to report data. That can make it difficult to track how they’re doing. Those tribal operations are also brick-and-mortar only, which reduces the opportunity for people to wager in those states – especially if the casinos are not in or near population centers or busy highways. Expanding into sports betting has helped tribal nations in those states, but that impact is limited without the ability to offer mobile wagering across the states in which they’re located. Much like California, they may also be affected by the Florida case, which could allow them to offer online gaming.