Will Opinion Prediction Market Rival Kalshi & Polymarket in 2026?

What Is the Opinion Prediction Market?

Offering greater user anonymity compared to sportsbooks, prediction markets are projected to grow by 66% by 2033. Would the two market leaders, Kalshi and Polymarket, primarily enjoy this growth?

In 2025, Opinion emerged as a genuine competitor. The Hong Kong-based prediction market recorded $6.4 billion in cumulative trading volume within its first 50 days after launch. Meanwhile, its weekly trading volume hit $1.5 billion in November 2025, surpassing the revenues reported by Kalshi and Polymarket over the same period.

In January 2026, Opinion Trade prediction platform secured 30–32% of the market share, showing the fastest growth trajectory in the sector, according to Skynet’s prediction markets report. 

What Makes It Different From Kalshi & Polymarket?

To have experienced such rapid growth, Opinion must feature unique selling points that its biggest market competitors don’t currently offer. But what are they, and why do they resonate with users so much?

Opinion aims to differentiate itself by focusing on “predictive primitives,” pricing real-time probability movements rather than binary outcomes. Despite its growth, many of Opinion’s markets have proportionately lower liquidity than that of equivalents at Kalshi and Polymarket.

As prediction markets can be exploited by individual users without high liquidity markets, Opinion was forced to consider a different way of operating. Opinion deploys AI oracles to automate the opening of markets and convert expectations into tradable assets.

Essentially, while user behavior still influences price movement, it’s also driven by mathematical liquidity curves and algorithmic data. Unlike Polymarket, which is a pure peer-to-peer model, trades occur against a liquidity pool rather than directly against another user.

While Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated organization, appeals to many users due to its perceived safety, and Polymarket’s deep liquidity and crypto integration entice a different type of user, Opinion’s allure is driven by loyalty incentives. Opinion used on‑platform point system (PTS) that rewarded trading behavior (volume, order placement, holding duration) before the $OPN token launch. 

Beyond loyalty incentives, many users will favor Opinion over its competitors, as it offers non-binary markets, which are not restricted to “Yes” or “No” answers. 

However, the technical shift toward AI-driven resolution has sparked debate among analysts regarding its reliability compared to traditional decentralized models. 

AI Oracles vs. Human Consensus: The Battle for Market Credibility

So, compared with crypto‑oracle models such as Polymarket’s optimistic proposal‑and‑dispute system using UMA, is Opinion’s AI‑assisted, more automated resolution process more or less credible?

Mark de Wolf, iGaming and Web3 analyst, told Gambling Insider:

For complex macro markets, Opinion’s AI-assisted oracle is likely more credible because it’s resistant to bias and human manipulation by design. It relies on official data sources and blockchain-verified feeds, which, altogether, should provide a solid basis for bias-free resolutions. 

For more subjective events, though, UMA oracles probably still have an edge. An event contract like, ‘Will Sydney Sweeney’s outfit at tonight’s award gala be considered controversial?’ requires qualitative assessments and scope for disagreement. UMAs can accommodate that by allowing for voting in edge cases.

Mark de Wolf

As AI matures and adopts verifiable proofs, Opinion’s model could become the standard, said Mark de Wolf. But for now, bettors should monitor real-world resolutions from both models to decide which one demonstrates trust based on empirical evidence.

Opinion vs Kalshi vs. Polymarket: Prediction Market Comparison

Feature	Opinion	Kalshi	Polymarket
Target audience	Crypto traders (global)	U.S. retail/institutional	Crypto/international (limited U.S.)
Regulation	Not CFTC; Web3-based	CFTC-regulated (U.S.)	Not CFTC; offshore crypto
Pricing model	On-chain (AMM/hybrid)	Order book	On-chain order book
Markets	Binary + flexible	Binary event contracts	Binary yes/no
Oracles	Web3/protocol	Centralized oversight	UMA/community
Incentives	Points/token rewards	Regulatory safety	Deep liquidity

Can Opinion Realistically Compete With the Two Giants? 

Despite Opinion’s market differentiation, breaking the duopoly of Kalshi and Polymarket is challenging. There are several areas where the two prediction market giants are competitive with, or outperform, Opinion’s product.

Structural Barriers: The Incumbent Advantage

There are two primary areas where the two prediction market giants currently outperform Opinion’s product:

• Liquidity: The main reason that Kalshi and Polymarket attract new customers is that they already host millions of existing users. A high user base typically results in high liquidity markets, even on less-interacted-with events, such as niche political outcomes or minor sports events. High-liquidity markets mean that prices are reflective of broad public behavior and that traders can enter and exit markets quickly without large price swings.
• Regulation: Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, protecting U.S.-based users from counterparty risk and illegal or fraudulent activity. By contrast, Opinion is unregulated in the U.S., operating entirely through smart contracts and tokenized assets – a factor that may deter risk-averse institutional players.

The Challenger’s Edge: Innovation as a Catalyst

While the barriers are high, Opinion leverages specific “new-age” advantages to carve out its own market share:

• Crypto-Native Appeal: For many, Opinion’s Web3 structure enhances its value, rather than deters it. A 2025 report estimated that there are currently between 40 and 70 million active on-chain users, an increase of 10 million from the previous year. Many of those users would be more incentivized by Opinion’s crypto-native offering.
• Market Innovation: Opinion Labs’ prediction market is moving beyond the “Yes/No” binary markets. It implements AMM-based continuous markets and non-binary selections, and explores features like fractionalized staking and prediction bundles – a new trading experience that its rivals currently lack.

The Push to Professionalize Prediction Markets: Expert Views 

As regulators are still grappling with whether to treat prediction market platforms as financial exchanges or gambling sites, we asked experts whether the ‘professional’ framing of Opinion – with its focus on macro-indicators and higher average trade sizes – helps or hinders the industry’s push for regulatory legitimacy.

Regulatory Framing: Moving From Gambling to Financial Instruments

Roman Baranovskyi, Head of Gambling Department, SBSB Fintech Lawyers, told Gambling Insider:

The ‘professional’ framing adopted by Opinion, which emphasizes macroeconomic indicators and larger trade sizes, represents a strategic shift that directly addresses one of the most complex legal challenges facing the prediction market industry – regulatory classification. By moving the narrative away from retail ‘betting’ and toward institutional-style ‘hedging,’ the platform positions its activity closer to financial derivatives markets rather than gambling services. 

From a legal and regulatory perspective, this distinction is critical: platforms that can demonstrate a connection to economic indicators, professional market participants, and mechanisms of price discovery are more likely to fall within the analytical framework applied to financial instruments rather than speculative gaming. 

Roman Baranovskyi

This type of positioning, according to Baranovskyi, reflects an emerging compliance strategy within the industry, where structuring market activity around professional trading behavior and data-driven signals can strengthen arguments for regulatory legitimacy and long-term integration into the broader financial ecosystem.

At the same time, the expert noted that the global prediction markets are becoming increasingly jurisdictionally fragmented, which places regulatory strategy at the center of platform development. While the Kalshi–Polymarket model has gained visibility among Western retail users, other platforms are pursuing region-specific regulatory and market strategies. 

Macro Indicators, Short-Term Crypto Markets & Speculative Trading 

Amir Hajian, Digital Assets Researcher at Keyrock, also believes that the focus on macro indicators (geopolitics, economics, politics, etc.) and sector-level outcomes, where participants can form a more informed view, helps the industryʼs push for regulatory legitimacy. Markets tied to macro or real-world indicators look closer to financial forecasting than gambling, which helps the case that prediction markets should be treated more like financial exchanges.

While there has been increasing attention on macro and geopolitical markets in recent months (Venezuela, Iran, U.S. government shutdown risk, etc.), and both volume and open interest have been growing in those areas, the fastest growth has recently come from crypto markets, Hajian said. These can resemble longer-dated options markets when predicting price outcomes further out, but when shortened to very short durations, they effectively become speculation or gambling, he noted.

Hajian told Gambling Insider:

For example, on Polymarket, the 5 and 15-minute crypto markets (when annualized) account for more than 20% of the platformʼs total volume from those markets alone. On Kalshi, crypto has now become the second-largest category after sports for similar reasons. Much of the activity in these markets is driven by traders who see mispricings between exchanges like Binance and the probabilities implied on prediction markets. Firms like Jane Street have reportedly begun participating in these markets to arbitrage those differences.

Of course, these quick-dated markets can be pure speculation and do not necessarily help the industryʼs broader regulatory positioning. But they also highlight that prediction markets are beginning to behave similarly to traditional financial exchanges. 

Amir Hajian

In traditional markets, the expert explained, stock brokerages like Robinhood generate a significant portion of their options activity from 0DTE (zero-days-to-expiry) contracts. When used by retail traders, these can also be purely speculative, yet they still exist within regulated financial market infrastructure and serve legitimate use cases for institutional traders as well.

Itʼs worth noting that while Opinion focuses on macro markets and tends to see higher average trade sizes, Polymarket and Kalshi still generate significantly higher overall volumes on similar macro and geopolitical markets. So, focusing solely on macro themes does not necessarily differentiate a platform on its own, Hajian concluded.

The Question of Organic Growth 

Amir Hajian also questioned Opinion’s organic growth numbers. He noted that the platform’s current activity has been influenced by its token launch. The platform has been distributing points pro rata based on trading volume, which incentivized traders to increase their position sizes and activity in order to accumulate a share of the token allocation. 

Now that the token launch has happened, Opinionʼs TVL (total value locked on Opinion) has already declined by more than half, suggesting that some of the earlier activity was driven by incentive farming rather than purely organic trading demand.

Amir Hajian

Can Regional Prediction Markets Compete Without the U.S. Dominance?

While Kalshi and Polymarket are deeply rooted in Western politics and sports, Opinion looks to have targeted the Asia-Pacific market. We asked the experts whether any challenger platform can realistically rival the incumbents without winning over a US audience.

Is the future of this industry geographically diverse?

Regional Strategy & “Sovereign Liquidity Pools”

Baranovskyi told Gambling Insider:

Opinion’s focus on the Asia-Pacific region – particularly in sectors such as esports and regional political forecasting – illustrates how platforms may build sustainable market positions by aligning with local regulatory frameworks, compliance requirements, and regional expertise. 

In 2026, this has led to the emergence of what can be described as ‘sovereign liquidity pools,’ where jurisdiction-specific regulation, licensing approaches, and localized market knowledge create a stronger legal and operational moat than the broad, global positioning pursued by early industry incumbents.

Roman Baranovskyi

Why U.S. Traders Still Drive Prediction Market Liquidity

Amir Hajian was very straightforward:

I donʼt believe any challenger platform can realistically rival incumbents without winning over a U.S. audience. Just like other ‘global’ financial exchanges, U.S. traders tend to drive a large share of trading volume and liquidity. Prediction markets are no different, which is why platforms are ultimately incentivized to make their markets accessible to U.S. participants.

Amir Hajian

According to Hajian, Polymarket is a good example. It was effectively restricted from the U.S. market for years, yet U.S. traders still accessed the platform through VPNs. 

Even during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when Polymarket was technically unavailable to U.S. users, the platform reached its all-time high in trading volume, and much of that activity was widely believed to come from the U.S.-based traders, he said. 

So, while legally speaking, U.S. traders may not be able to access these platforms, in practice, they often still participate. A similar dynamic is happening on Opinion today, the expert believes.

Why Global Participation Improves Prediction Market Accuracy

Focusing solely on the U.S. is not enough, and the future of this industry will be geographically diverse. Prediction markets ultimately aim to produce the most accurate probability of a given outcome. To do that effectively, you need traders who are closest to the underlying information.

Amir Hajian

• If you want the most accurate probability on the Netherlands election, you want Dutch traders participating, Hajian said. 
• If you want informed pricing around U.S. interest rate decisions, you need U.S. traders trading those markets. 
• For esports markets in Asia, regional participants who follow those teams closely will likely have the strongest informational edge.

This is why global participation is so important, Hajian highlighted. The core value proposition of prediction markets is information discovery, aggregating dispersed knowledge into a single probability. To do that well, platforms need participation from the people who actually understand those markets.

For that reason, prediction markets will continue trying to scale globally and open participation as widely as possible. The stronger and more geographically diverse the participant base, the more accurate the market becomes. In that sense, the long-term future of prediction markets is global, even if winning U.S. participation remains critical for liquidity and scale.

Amir Hajian

Conclusion

Opinion offers an alternative to Kalshi and Polymarket, capturing 30–32% of the market share and posting the fastest growth, effectively rivaling the two heavyweights. However, breaking the duopoly over a longer period will require greater regulatory standards, further market innovations, and global participation. 

Ultimately, Opinion’s approach, combining AMM markets, AI oracles, and non-binary trading, positions it as a serious challenger. 

Frequently Asked Questions

References

1. Kalshi and Polymarket Dominate 97.5% of Prediction Market in 2025 (Phemex)
2. Prediction Industry – Decentralized Finance Market Statistics (Grand View Research)
3. Opinion Labs surpasses $6.4B in cumulative trading volume (CoinNess)
4. Opinion Prediction Market Thwarts Kalshi and Polymarket With $1.5 Billion Weekly Volume (Superex)
5. Skynet Prediction Markets Report (Skynet)
6. BNB-based Prediction Market Opinion Launches Token (The Defiant)
7. a16z 2025 Annual Report: The World is Moving to Blockchain, and the US Crypto Market is Stronger Than Ever (PANews)