Prediction Market Litigation, World Cup Trading Lead Gambling Stories to Watch This Week
World Cup trading volume continues to climb, the U.S. Open gets underway, and courts face new prediction market briefing deadlines in Wisconsin and Tennessee.
Prediction markets remain at the center of gambling industry developments this week, with upcoming briefing deadlines in Wisconsin and Tennessee and growing trading activity around the FIFA World Cup and the U.S. Open. Meanwhile, as the past several weeks have demonstrated, additional prediction market litigation could emerge at any time.
On the legislative side, while no action has been scheduled, Rhode Island lawmakers could revisit a bill to expand the state’s sports betting market. At the same time, New York’s responsible gambling measures await Assembly consideration. Elsewhere, Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs is weighing a gaming oversight bill.
Prediction Markets
Upcoming Court Deadlines in Wisconsin and Tennessee
Defendants in Wisconsin’s lawsuit against Kalshi and other prediction market operators must respond to the state’s motion to remand the case back to state court by June 15.
Wisconsin argues the dispute belongs in state court, while the defendants say federal court is appropriate as the case raises questions involving federal commodities law and the Commodity Exchange Act. Separately, the state last week filed a preliminary injunction in the event the court denies the remand motion.
Meanwhile, Kalshi’s response brief is due June 17 in Tennessee’s appeal of the preliminary injunction that prevented state officials from enforcing their cease-and-desist order against the exchange. Tennessee is asking the Sixth Circuit to overturn the lower court’s injunction.
What to watch:
Filings and arguments by Kalshi and other defendants on jurisdiction claims.
Will World Cup Trading Volume Keep Climbing?
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to be among the largest betting events in history. On prediction market platforms, the World Cup has already generated billions of dollars in trading activity.
On Polymarket’s global platform, World Cup-related markets have surpassed $2.36 billion in cumulative volume, making it the second-most traded event after the 2024 U.S elections. Meanwhile, Kalshi’s World Cup markets have generated approximately $281 million in trading activity.
Since the tournament began last week, Polymarket has added roughly $400 million in volume, while Kalshi has added approximately $180 million.
Interest in major sporting events often builds as the tournament advances and elimination matches approach. The expanded 48-team format will produce more games, including elimination games, potentially pushing the tournament close to record levels.
What to watch:
Whether trading volume continues to increase steadily or cools down after the initial interest.
Тhe US Open Offers Another Trading Opportunity
The 2026 U.S. Open begins June 18 and could provide another major test of demand for sports-event contracts. The market has already generated over $30 million in trading volume, putting it on pace to surpass The Masters’ $37 million-plus volume.
Scottie Scheffler has held the favorite position on Kalshi for several weeks, carrying roughly a 14%-15% implied chance of victory since May. Meanwhile, Rory McIlroy has seen his implied probability decline from approximately 9% to around 7%.
What to watch:
Whether trading volume accelerates as the tournament begins, and whether McIlroy, Jon Rahm, or other contenders close the gap on Scheffler.
Will the CFTC Continue Suing States?
The CFTC filed a lawsuit against New Mexico last Friday, marking the eighth state against which the agency has filed a complaint.
The increasing number of challenges by the CFTC suggests the agency will likely continue to sue states that seek an enforcement action against prediction markets.
One state that could be next on CFTC’s radar is Washington. The state sued Kalshi in state court, with the company moving it to federal court. That case returned to state court in May after a federal judge granted remand, and the Ninth Circuit rejected Kalshi’s attempt to halt the transfer.
Whether the CFTC eventually seeks to challenge Washington’s actions remains an open question.
What to watch:
Whether the CFTC files additional lawsuits against states that attempt to restrict prediction market activity, such as Washington.
More Lawsuits on the Horizon?
Prediction market litigation has expanded rapidly in the past few months.
States, tribes, prediction market operators, and the CFTC have all filed lawsuits, creating a patchwork of overlapping cases across multiple jurisdictions. Nearly every week in recent months has produced a new filing, injunction request, appeal, or enforcement action.
With additional states continuing to evaluate prediction market activity and lawmakers introducing new restrictions, further litigation appears likely.
What to watch:
New state enforcement actions, tribal lawsuits, or challenges from prediction market operators seeking to preempt potential restrictions before they take effect.
Legislation
Will Rhode Island’s Assembly Pick Sports Betting Expansion Bill?
Earlier this month, the Rhode Island Senate passed S 3118, a bill that would expand the state’s sports betting market. The measure would end the state’s current sports betting monopoly by authorizing additional operators.
The bill now sits in the House Finance Committee. The committee meets regularly, making the bill one to monitor this week.
However, similar legislation stalled in the House last year despite passing the Senate. That raises a question about whether lawmakers would even discuss the proposal this session.
What to watch:
Whether House Finance schedules the bill for consideration.
What’s Next for New York’s Responsible Gambling Bills?
Two responsible gambling measures, S 10092 and S 7908, recently passed the Senate and now await consideration in the Assembly.
The proposals address issues including limiting minors’ exposure to gambling-related advertising and strengthening protections against underage sports betting.
What to watch:
Whether Assembly committees schedule the measures for consideration.
Arizona Bill Awaits Governor’s Decision
Arizona lawmakers have sent SB 1671 to Gov. Katie Hobbs for consideration.
The bill would expand oversight and reporting requirements for Arizona gaming regulators while continuing the state’s gaming, racing, and combat sports commissions through 2032.
What to watch:
Whether Hobbs signs the bill into law, vetoes it, or allows it to become law without her signature.
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