Prediction Markets Statistics 2026: Market Size, Growth & Trends
Prediction markets had a strong 2025 and an even stronger start to 2026. Single-day and weekly trading volume records are being beaten or challenged constantly. When these milestones are considered together, it’s clear that the market is being driven by regular and high-frequency trading. The data below breaks down prediction market statistics, showing how large the market has become and who dominates trading in 2026.
Key Insights
- Recent figures from prediction market statistics show rapid growth, with total notional trading volume reaching over $44 billion in 2025.
- Polymarket and Kalshi generated around 85%–90% of the total volume.
- Prediction market growth statistics point to wider adoption, with monthly trades and active users experiencing big jumps.
- Forecast quality remains high with average Brier scores near 0.09.
Key Prediction Market Industry Statistics at a Glance
The figures below offer a clear picture of the prediction markets industry as it stands today. All the data in this article comes from a report published by Keyrock and Dune, alongside platform-level data from a Dune Analytics dashboard maintained by Gate Research.
The table brings together prediction market statistics explained through trading volume, user activity, and forecast accuracy, giving readers a clear base for prediction market data analysis.
| Indicator | Latest Figure | What it shows |
|---|---|---|
| Total market volume (2025) | Over $44 billion | Total notional trading volume across major prediction market platforms |
| Market concentration | Around 85–90% of the volume | Most trading activity comes from Polymarket and Kalshi combined |
| Polymarket volume (2025) | Around $21.5 billion | Notional volume recorded between January and November 2025 |
| Kalshi volume (2025) | Around $17.1 billion | Notional volume recorded between January and November 2025 |
| Stable monthly baseline | $1.5–$2 billion | Typical monthly volume after the election period in early 2025 |
| Latest monthly volume | Over $13 billion | Total monthly volume recorded in November 2025 |
| Transaction growth | About 240,000 to over 43 million | Increase in total trades between early 2024 and late 2025 |
| Monthly active users | About 4,000 to over 600,000 | Growth in the number of users trading each month between early 2024 and late 2025 |
| Main market categories | Politics, sports, economics, tech | Areas that now account for most trading activity |
| Average Brier score | Around 0.09 | Overall accuracy level across prediction markets |
Prediction Markets Size and Trading Volume
Prediction market statistics show a market that has grown very quickly. In early 2024, monthly notional trading volume across all major platforms combined was below $100 million. It then reached over $13 billion in November 2025.
In 2025 alone, total activity exceeded $44 billion. In 2026, prediction markets opened with a bang, hitting a new single-day high of around $701.7 million in trading volume. Weekly totals also pushed past $5 billion at the end of 2025 and again in early 2026.
Looking closer at the numbers helps explain how this growth developed:
- The first major peak was recorded in October 2024, thanks to the U.S. presidential election. Monthly volume went above $4.5 billion.
- After the election, trading settled at around $1.5 to $2 billion per month, still far above earlier levels.
- By mid-to-late 2025, activity had picked up again, as people started trading not only on politics, but also on economics and tech.
For prediction market volume statistics, analysts rely on notional volume, calculated by multiplying the contract price by the number traded. This provides a consistent method for comparing activity across platforms and supports clearer analysis of prediction market data.
Prediction Market Growth Trends (2024–2026)
Prediction market growth statistics suggest that recent expansion is steady, not just temporary.
Since early 2024, monthly trading volume has increased by roughly 130 times, while the number of transactions has grown from about 240 thousand to more than 43 million.
Prediction market user growth in 2025 was also notable, with monthly active users rising from around 4,000 in 2024 to well over 600,000 by late 2025.
Several clear shifts help explain why growth held up:
- Markets surrounding elections and politics continued to attract traders even outside campaign periods.
- Trading on inflation and policy outcomes led to some of the fastest economic market growth in 2025.
- Users also priced regulatory decisions and innovation milestones, leading to the expansion of tech-related markets.
Jordan Bender, equity research analyst at Citizens, also expects continued growth in this sector in 2026. “As we look into 2026, there probably won’t be much headwind slowing this industry. What we’re seeing is a mass adoption into the prediction market space. Right now, we’re essentially at the peak of the sports betting calendar. We do have important events this year: the Olympics, the World Cup, the World Baseball Classic, and those will help as we look over the course of the year. I wouldn’t really expect volume to slow down.”
We might see some plateauing and a shift toward more seasonal patterns. But if we’re looking at downloads of Kalshi, Polymarket, or other prediction market platforms, there’s nothing there right now that suggests it’s slowing.
Jordan Bender
Polymarket vs. Kalshi Trading Volume
Prediction market trends show a market that remains highly concentrated at the top. In fact, most of the prediction market volume in 2025 came from just two names, despite there being multiple platforms.
These top two, Polymarket and Kalshi, generated around $38–$39 billion of the roughly $44 billion in total notional volume recorded during the year. Because of the concentration, comparing Polymarket vs. Kalshi trading volume helps explain how activity is distributed across the market.
Between January and November 2025:
- Polymarket accounted for roughly $21.5 billion in notional volume
- Kalshi contributed around $17.1 billion over the same period
When it came to total trades:
- Polymarket processed 95 million total trades (roughly 54% of cumulative trades), and its monthly trades have grown from roughly 45,000 to around 19 million (421 times increase).
- Kalshi recorded 74 million total trades (roughly 42% of cumulative trades) and rose from around 196,000 monthly trades to about 21 million (106 times increase).
On a monthly basis, Polymarket often led during periods of high political interest, while Kalshi’s activity was more strongly linked to sports markets.
In fact, on average:
- Sports accounted for 85% of Kalshi’s notional volume.
- Polymarket was more evenly distributed, with sports (39%), politics (34%), and crypto (18%) together driving more than 90% of its activity.
According to Jordan Bender, the wave of new launches in late 2025 has largely been about platforms “essentially trying to compete and match their product to what Kalshi has,” though early traction has been mixed:
A lot of these companies have had a slower start than maybe they had anticipated. Companies like DraftKings [Predictions] and FanDuel [Predicts] expected to get product parity by the end of the year and implement more offerings and markets. And it might be harder than we were expecting for these companies to ramp up.
Jordan Bender
Accuracy of Prediction Markets vs. Polls
Careful prediction market analysis shows that prediction markets deliver strong forecasting results. Prediction market accuracy is measured in two main ways:
- Headline accuracy, which measures how often the option the market rated as most likely ended up being correct;
- Brier scores, which measure how close the market’s probability was to the final outcome.
In prediction markets, probabilities are calculated via prices: a higher price means the market sees a higher chance of that outcome happening. This pricing model shows that prediction markets work more like trading platforms than traditional sportsbooks.
These price-based probabilities are later compared with the real result once the event ends. When that happens, it turns out that prediction platforms achieve headline accuracy rates of 90% to 95%, with accuracy rising as events get closer.
When it comes to Brier scores, lower scores indicate better accuracy, and the data show that a random forecast scores 0.25, while prediction markets average around 0.09.
As shown in the graph above, Brier scores indicate that prediction markets are far more accurate than polls.
Polymarket Accuracy
Polymarket’s performance has become a common reference point, assessed using accuracy rates.
Key findings include:
- One month before each contract ends, the result is correctly priced about 90% of the time.
- One day before the resolution, accuracy dips slightly to around 89% due to new information entering the market.
- In the final four hours, accuracy rises again to about 94%.
- Across resolved markets, Polymarket’s Brier scores cluster around 0.09, with lower scores in higher-volume markets.
Kalshi Accuracy
Kalshi shows a more stable pattern of accuracy over time, shaped by its more standardized market setup.
Key findings include:
- Brier scores were often below 0.10, indicating that markets were accurately forecast.
- In the final days before a contract ends, the Brier scores approached 0.00–0.01 (meaning near-zero error).
- Even 200 days before resolution, Kalshi’s Brier scores remain around 0.05–0.06, still outperforming polls and sports betting markets.
- Kalshi shows a narrower score range than Polymarket, with far fewer outcomes above 0.10, suggesting more consistent accuracy across market types.
Future Outlook: Projections for 2026 and Beyond
The data heading into 2026 suggests that prediction markets are settling into a more stable phase.
By the end of 2025, even outside major election periods, monthly notional volume remained above $13 billion — setting a much higher starting point for 2026 than in earlier years.
There are also several clear signals that can explain what comes next:
- During 2025, economic markets expanded by around 10 times, while the tech and science markets grew by more than 17 times.
- Capital is also staying in the market longer, since combined open interest across major platforms increased from about $3.3 billion to nearly $13 billion.
- Accuracy is improving thanks to growing participation, as evidenced by lower Brier scores among markets with higher trading volume.
From a prediction market analysis perspective, these trends point to steadier growth in 2026.
As the industry matures, Bender believes that a select group of brands with sizable user bases is well-positioned to take a big slice of the pie.
It is also our expectation that, over time, the traditional sports betting companies like DraftKings and FanDuel will probably be among the top three or four players when all is said and done. They built the mousetrap; they know what sports betters want to bet on. I’d say the other company to watch is Robinhood, with its massive database and a very easy way to cross-sell its players.
Jordan Bender
Conclusion
Prediction market statistics now point to an industry that is settling into a more mature stage, with billions of dollars being traded on major platforms. At the same time, user numbers and forecast accuracy continue to improve.
Together, these trends support a realistic view of the prediction market market size in 2026, shaped by steady use.
If you’re interested in trading on prediction markets, you should be aware that this activity carries certain financial risks. While prediction markets are not defined as gambling, being familiar with responsible gambling tools and resources can help you mitigate some of that risk.
Frequently Asked Questions
A: The most useful prediction market statistics focus on trading volume, the number of users, and the accuracy of forecasts. These figures support a clearer analysis of prediction market data.
A: Accuracy is usually measured in two ways: headline accuracy shows how often the most likely outcome turns out to be correct, while Brier scores measure how close market prices are to the final result.
A: In 2025, prediction markets recorded more than $44 billion in notional trading volume across major platforms, providing a clear reference point for current prediction market volume statistics.
A: Since 2024, prediction markets have exploded. By the end of 2025, monthly trading volume (from under $100 million to more than $13 billion) and transaction counts (from about 240 thousand to over 43 million) had climbed sharply. Even prediction market user growth in 2025 was notable (from roughly 4,000 to over 600,000).
A: Polymarket had the highest trading volume in 2025 ($21.5 billion), followed by Kalshi ($17.1 billion). As a result, these two platforms are crucial to estimating the market size of prediction markets in 2026.
References
- The next frontier of financial markets (Dune)
- Prediction Markets Overview: Tracking 10+ Protocols (Dune)
- Market News: Prediction Market Trading Volume Hits Record $702M Despite Rising Regulatory Scrutiny (Binance Square)
- Prediction Markets Hit Record Trading Volume as Fragmentation Concerns Mount (Yahoo Finance)
- Commercial, corporate, and investment banking services (Citizens)
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