Rush Street Interactive Q4 Earnings: Prediction Markets, Alberta Timing and Illinois Minimum Bet

Rush Street Interactive (RSI) delivered record fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, posting double-digit revenue growth and record adjusted EBITDA while ending the year debt-free. On the earnings call, however, the focus shifted from performance to positioning, including prediction markets, Alberta’s anticipated iGaming launch, and Illinois’ minimum bet hike.

Prediction Markets: Monitoring, Impact, Innovation Watch

Monitoring and “Every Angle Possible”

On prediction markets, RSI leadership said that it is monitoring the space “very closely.”

CEO Richard Schwartz emphasized what monitoring means at RSI:

“We don’t do things at a surface level of this company. We’re very thorough in our ways that we monitor, so we have looked at every angle possible, and I think, or certainly most of them.”

He added that the company can respond if needed:

“If we need to react in some way at some point, we are able to do so.”

But Schwartz framed the issue primarily as a legal and definitional one:

“It would be more challenging to justify. A prediction market, when the underlying event is being played for stakes, right, when you’re betting on the underlying event or the underlying event game is being played for stakes, I think it’s harder to justify that as being a, the type of market that’s regulated there.”

He noted ongoing litigation and regulatory uncertainty:

“I think obviously a lot of courts are going back and forth. You’ll continue to see that. I saw the Ninth Circuit came out with a ruling earlier this afternoon.”

And concluded: “But I certainly think that there’s a lot more to come in this area.”

Delaware: “Hard to Tell,” but No Clear Impact

Analysts pressed RSI on whether prediction markets are cannibalizing online sports betting handle. They cited particularly Delaware, where the company operates as the exclusive provider.

Kyle Sauers, RSI President and CFO, said:

“I think the first is what we’re seeing… It’s hard to tell. It doesn’t appear that it’s hurting our OSB business and handle, but it’s definitely hard to measure”.

He pointed to recent performance in Delaware, including January:

“I mean, if you just look at the last four months, and I’ll include January. We’re up over 50%, year over year, each of those months, in revenue. So again, I think it’s hard to measure, but those are pretty solid results.”

Sauers also acknowledged that heightened activity around prediction markets could expand awareness:

“This all of this activity brings a lot of awareness to consumers, so there’s certainly an element there that can draw more people in and more interest.”

Product Innovation: Self-Certification as an Advantage

When asked whether prediction market mechanics could influence RSI’s own roadmap, Schwartz pointed to regulatory flexibility as a differentiator.

“I think one thing about prediction markets is that operators are self-certifying, which means it’s a little bit of an easier process perhaps to try things out that maybe it would be harder to do in a state-level regulatory environment.”

He cautioned that the segment is still developing:

“I think it’s still too early to really appreciate what all the different elements of what’s going to be improved or not.”

But suggested product divergence is likely:

“Some are going to come from the approach of trying to replicate. A sports book interface and others are going to probably come up with approaches that are going to be novel and differentiated and bring a different element of experience to a user that may be different from what they can get in a more conventional sports book.”

He added: “So I think you’ll start to see some of those types of innovations come to market.”

Alberta: Timing and Profitability Expectations

RSI provided a more transparent launch window for iGaming in Alberta. Schwartz said it “could be” the end of Q2 or early Q3, suggesting a summer launch.

He also noted, “We’re hopeful, and it looks like the regulators they’re moving at a very determined pace.”

Sauers characterized Alberta as a meaningful iGaming opportunity. He emphasized that it’s not included in the company’s guidance, but added:

“Every North American online casino market that we’ve launched in, we’ve been profitable by the fourth quarter of operations, and we don’t see a reason that that should be different with Alberta.”

Illinois: Minimum Bet Strategy as a Tax-Structure Lever

Analysts also asked about the rationale for RSI increasing its minimum wager in Illinois from $1 to $5, and whether it was tied to Chicago’s per-bet tax.

Sauers responded that the increase was “not necessarily” a response to the Chicago city tax and framed it as a strategic lever rather than a direct fee pass-through.

He made clear the approach could extend to other markets:

“Could we use that in other markets in response to some sort of different tax structure? Absolutely.”

Sauers also pointed to consumer behavior, noting that activity levels show the state’s per-bet tax is not good for consumers.

The comments come as Illinois lawmakers consider repealing the per-bet tax amid declining wager counts, while Michigan’s governor has proposed a similar structure in the FY27 budget.

Data by the Illinois Gaming Board shows that from September to December 2025, bettors in the state placed 27.6 million fewer bets than in the same period in 2024.

Performance Snapshot

RSI delivered record results for Q4 and FY2025.

Q4 2025:

• Revenue: $324.9 million, up by 28% year-over-year and marking a new quarterly record.
• Net income: $19.1 million, up from $6.5 million in Q4 2024.
• Adjusted EBITDA: $44.1 million, up 44% year-over-year and a new record.
• Total monthly active users in the U.S. and Canada exceeded 278,000, up 37% year over year. IGaming monthly active users were up 51%.

FY2025:

• Revenue: $1.134 billion, exceeding the high end of guidance and up 23% year-over-year.
• Net income: $74.0 million, compared with $7.2 million in 2024.
• Adjusted EBITDA: $153.7 million, exceeding guidance and up 66% year-over-year.
• Unrestricted cash and cash equivalents of $336 million, up $107 million year-over-year, with no debt.

RSI also initiated full-year 2026 guidance of $1.375 billion to $1.425 billion in revenue and $210 million to $230 million in Adjusted EBITDA.