Vermont Bill Would Copy Illinois’ Per-Bet Tax Model, Moves to Ban Prediction Markets
Vermont is the latest state to consider adopting Illinois' per-bet sportsbook tax model — and it's pairing the proposal with a ban on prediction markets tied to sports and politics.
Vermont lawmakers are looking to borrow from Illinois’ per-bet tax structure — while simultaneously moving to prohibit prediction markets tied to sports, politics, and other real-world events. House Bill 913 (H.913) would impose a $0.50 per-wager fee on sports bets and amend state criminal statutes to explicitly ban certain prediction market contracts.
Vermont Aims to Adopt Illinois-Style Per-Bet Tax
According to the bill text, H.913 would amend Vermont’s sports wagering statutes “to add a per-wager fee of $0.50 for all wagers made through the State’s sports wagering operators.”
The proposal is similar to Illinois’ per-bet structure, enacted in 2025. The state applies a levy of $0.25 on the first 20 million bets placed, and $0.50 thereafter. In addition, operators pay tax on gaming revenue.
The move faced backlash from operators, who imposed surcharges and minimum bet requirements. Recent Illinois Gaming Board data shows total wagers have declined significantly in the months following implementation.
Still, Vermont is not alone in looking to follow the model. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer‘s FY27 budget proposes adding a $0.25–$0.50 per-bet sportsbook tax, identical to Illinois. The state projects the new tax will generate $38.8 million in FY27.
However, unlike Illinois and Michigan, Vermont’s smaller betting market — one of the smallest in the U.S. — and its automatic $ 0.50-per-bet tax could prompt one or more of the state’s three sportsbooks to leave the market or introduce higher surcharges to remain profitable.
Criminal Ban on Prediction Markets
Beyond taxation, H.913 proposes sweeping language targeting prediction markets.
The bill states it seeks to amend Vermont’s criminal gambling laws. It aims “to ensure that the criminal prohibition of wagering activities includes offering prediction market securities or commodities that are contingent on the outcome of events related to sports, contests, natural persons, politics and campaigns, disasters, war, all-hazards, or death.”
It further proposes amendments to civil law so that such agreements are deemed void and subject to recovery actions for lost money.
Part of a Broader Multi-State Crackdown
Vermont’s move comes amid a growing wave of state-level efforts targeting prediction markets.
New York led the way in early January with a bill to prohibit prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket from offering sports-event contracts in the state.
Iowa and Hawaii followed. Hawaii lawmakers want to include prediction markets within the state’s illegal gambling definitions. Meanwhile, Iowa would require platforms to obtain a license and pay a 20% tax on revenue.
More recently, lawmakers in Illinois and New Jersey introduced legislation on prediction markets. In Illinois, HB 5059 establishes a regulatory framework for event contracts while prohibiting several categories, including sports and political markets.
New Jersey’s SB3692 follows a similar strategy to Illinois. It would prohibit certain prediction market contracts. At the same time, it would allow sports event contracts if they operate under the state’s existing sports wagering regulatory framework.
At the federal level, Rep. Dina Titus has introduced legislation to prohibit sports-event contracts nationwide. Additionally, Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy announced that he’s working on a bill to ban prediction markets. Murphy announced his plans on X, after speculation emerged about potential insider trading tied to U.S. strikes on Iran.
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