Questioning the Value of Sportsbook Customers Acquired During Super Bowl
While the Super Bowl is projected to draw its typically impressive handle for sportsbooks, some analysts believe there's little long-term value to new customers who sign up to bet the game.
The Super Bowl is the most critical acquisition event of the year for sports betting operators. Promos are rolled out in waves, sportsbooks spend extravagantly on advertising, and affiliates show up in full force to drive customers to their partners.
There is, however, doubt about the long-term value of those new users.
Super Bowl Sunday last year saw 523,000 downloads, 45% more than any other day during 2025, according to Jordan Bender, Senior Equity Research Analyst for Citizens. That’s a lot of downloads, but Bender said players acquired during the Super Bowl period are typically lower quality.
Swifties are a prime example.
Prompted by Taylor Swift’s romantic relationship with Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, which began before the 2023 season, sportsbooks leveraged the pop sensation’s presence around the team by marketing to her young-female fan base.
They rolled out betting markets themed around Swift and her music, and acquired a set of customers who may never have considered downloading a sports betting app.
“There is a portion of those customers that download the app because of certain storylines like Taylor Swift,” Bender said in an email to Gambling Insider. “They see ads during the game or at Super Bowl parties, and people are talking about betting.
“These players are often not core bettors and will disengage after the event, meaning a higher portion of the acquired players have little to no lifetime value.”
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Plateaued Expansion, Prediction Markets, Lack of Star Power Impact Super Bowl Handle
Estimates vary on how much money Americans will legally wager on Super Bowl 60 between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks:
- Citizens forecasts $1.5 billion in handle across online and retail sportsbooks. That represents a 2% decline from last year’s title game, a 40-22 Eagles win over the Chiefs.
- Legal Sports Report, in conjunction with the Sports Betting Alliance, estimates $1.71 billion in legal wagers for Seahawks vs. Patriots. That’s up from more than $1.5 billion last year and would set a Super Bowl handle record for the ninth straight year.
- The American Gaming Association’s projection is $1.76 billion, the highest of the three estimates.
The NFL season culminates on Sunday, Feb. 8, amid challenges surrounding the betting industry. Expansion of legal sports betting has plateaued. Missouri is the only state to launch a regulated market since last year’s Super Bowl.
Meanwhile, there’s a debate over how much business prediction markets are taking from sportsbooks. Still, there’s no doubt that Kalshi, Robinhood, Polymarket, and others are claiming a share of the market.
Another potential impediment to Super Bowl handle growth this year: a lack of star power.
“[Citizens’ projected] decline in handle is driven by less of a story line this year with the Chiefs/Eagles boasting key players like Patrick Mahomes and Saquon Barkley and notable figures like Taylor Swift, while prediction markets, already seeing impressive volume on the game, are creating some pressure in the legal market,” wrote Jordan Bender, Senior Equity Research Analyst for the investment bank.
Additionally, Missouri’s new legal market figured to have contributed a far larger chunk on Super Bowl Sunday had the Chiefs been there for the sixth time in seven seasons.
Super Bowl Revenue Tougher to Predict
A Super Bowl loss for sports betting operators is extremely rare. In fact, Nevada sportsbooks have recorded a loss only twice in the past 35 years.
Revenue, though, varies wildly, and it’s unlikely Seahawks-Patriots will go as well for the books as last year’s Big Game.
The Eagles’ victory over the Chiefs in Super Bowl 59 was an excellent result for operators. They held 17% of the more than $1.5 billion wagered.
Nevada operators won $22.1 million of the $151.6 million bet in the state, a 14.6% hold. But when the Chiefs beat the Eagles in Super Bowl 57 two years prior, Nevada’s books showed just $4.4 million in revenue. That represented a scant 2.8% hold rate of the $153.2 million in handle.
2018’s Super Bowl LII, an Eagles upset over the Patriots, was even less successful. The books won only $1.17 million, or 0.7%, of the $158.9 million wagered in the Silver State.
Six days before this year’s game, the Seahawks are 4.5-point favorites over the Patriots, and sportsbooks are serving up prop bets on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Drake Maye, touchdowns, safeties, and countless other markets. For books to get even close to last year’s hold, most of these markets must go their way.
LSR’s Eric Ramsey pointed out that Nevada books typically hold less than their nationwide counterparts. He presumes a combined hold of at least 6% and projects Super Bowl betting revenue this year to surpass $100 million.
Citizens’ Bender said that matching last year’s hold is doubtful.
“The tough hold comp [from 17% last year] and handle down YoY imply ‘in line’ gaming margins could result in gaming revenue down ~35% for the Super Bowl,” Bender wrote.
More Super Bowl news: NFL bars prediction market ads on NBC
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