Accel Entertainment Stock Pops After 8th Consecutive Quarterly Revenue Beat
Beats on revenue, EPS and EBITDA underscored the success of the Fairmount Park soft launch and the upcoming Chicago VGTs opportunity
Distributed gaming operator Accel Entertainment (ACEL) was expected to continue its run of outperformance, and it hasn’t disappointed, posting another period of record revenue. The company beat the $335.7 million forecast for Q4 2025, coming in at $341.4 million. It is the eighth beat in a row on quarterly revenue.
Year-on-year (YoY) revenue growth on the same quarter in 2024 of 7.5% has come in at the top end of analyst estimates. The full-year revenue is $1.328 billion, 7.9% above $1.231 billion for FY 2024.
New markets in Louisiana and Nebraska are starting to show their worth, increasing the weight of their contribution alongside the core Illinois contribution.
On Q4 EPS, analysts had expected a range of $0.15 to $0.18, which Accel surpassed by coming in at $0.19. The reported $0.60 for the full year was well below the initial $0.66 forecast.
The poor EPS performance in Q2 2025 was due to a margin squeeze related to the integration of the Illinois Fairmount Park business, acquired by the company for $35 million in a deal dating back to July 2024.
The Q4 EPS suggests that the soft opening of Fairmount in April 2025 has started contributing meaningfully to revenue.
Fairmount Park Phase II Buildout Looking Good – Full Casino by 2026, Early 2027
On the conference call announcing quarterly earnings, analysts got what they wanted on Phase II build-out news. Accel expects to unveil “expanded gaming space” and additional terminal capacity in time for the start of the 2026 racing meet (April 14, 2026). This interim expansion will serve as a bridge to the full permanent facility.
The current target for the grand opening of the permanent, full-scale casino facility is late 2026 to early 2027. The total investment is reaffirmed at $85-95 million, with $30 million earmarked for Phase II.
However, the fact that adjusted EBITDA ($51.10) beat the $50.1 million estimate could signal that the high Fairmount Park start-up costs are normalizing.
It further underscores the one-off nature of the significant (50%) Q2 2025 EPS miss, which was driven by costs associated with Fairmount Park. Still, the inability to restore a semblance of stability to the bottom line remains worrisome for investors.
Chicago VGT Entry To Start Generating Revenue in Q3 or Q4 2026
Aside from Fairmount Park, the company’s planned entry into the Chicago Video Gaming Terminals (VGTs) sector and the integration of its Louisiana-based Toucan Gaming, acquired in late 2024, saw revenues starting to show for the first time this quarter.
Incoming CEO and current COO Mark Phelan, who will be taking over from founder and current CEO Andrew Rubenstein on August 7, spent a significant part of the call chewing over the Chicago VGT market.
Accel expects to begin generating revenue in Chicago by Q3 or Q4 2026. Management estimated the Chicago market could eventually add $1 billion in incremental Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) to the state.
Said Phelan:
From a capital deployment perspective, Accel believes it is well-positioned to leverage its strong balance sheet, existing fixed operating infrastructure, and route management capabilities to capitalize on opportunities in a Chicago VGT market.
“We expect this market to begin generating revenue for us as early as the third or fourth quarter of 2026.”
Although the budget approved by Chicago’s City Council ended the ban on video gambling, Mayor Brandon Johnson has been slow in notifying the Illinois Gaming Board to start the licensing the process. Phelan reported that he city is finally moving toward implementation.
Louisiana’s Hold-Per-Day of $985 a Significant Premium Over Illinois
Business is progressing well in Louisiana, too. It was gleaned from the Hold-Per-Day (HPD) in Louisiana of $1,011 that Toucan Gaming is an earnings success. The average HPD for the full year was $979, a significant premium over Illinois at $905.
On the balance sheet, Accel’s net debt position has improved slightly, down $3 million from $305 million reported in Q3 2025 to $302 million in Q4.
A portion of cash flow has been used to pay down on some of the debt, although the cash priority is the Chicago VGT and Fairmount opportunities. The company ended the year with $285 million in cash.
Rubenstein said that the Fairmount soft opening was a key contributor to the 2025 revenue performance, garnering “solid visitation”, with Phelan describing the launch as “off to a flyer” and exceeding expectations.
Management also confirmed that early data showed the HPD at Fairmount Park was trending higher than at traditional route gaming locations, due to the “destination” nature of the facility.
Buyback Program Expansion a Vote of Confidence by Management
As far as returning value to shareholders goes, share repurchases continued, but at a welcome higher pitch. In Q3, 600,000 shares were repurchased, and the program has now expanded to 1.5 million shares in Q4, at a cost of $16.2 million.
The substantial increase in the buyback program signals that the management sees the shares as undervalued at the current $11 level. In FY 2025, the company has repurchased ~3.7 million shares.
Shareholders liked what they saw in the earnings and heard in the upbeat tone from management as it pushes ahead with its leadership transition. On the tricky issue of iGaming’s rise, the leadership has confidence in the strength of its offering.
Rubenstein was forthright: “I don’t think [iGaming] is as likely to gain traction in markets that already have a robust bricks-and-mortar route gaming presence like Illinois.”
The stock is up 7.64% in after-hours trading at $11.92.
| Period | Revenue (Reported) | Revenue (Forecast) | Rev Beat/Miss % | EBITDA (Reported) | EBITDA (Forecast) | EBITDA Beat/Miss % | EPS (Reported) | EPS (Forecast) | EPS Beat/Miss % |
| Q1 2024 | $301.80 | $297.80 | 🟢 +1.3% | $46.20 | $45.80 | 🟢 +0.9% | $0.22 | $0.20 | 🟢 +10.0% |
| Q2 2024 | $309.40 | $303.80 | 🟢 +1.8% | $49.70 | $48.90 | 🟢 +1.6% | $0.25 | $0.22 | 🟢 +13.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $302.20 | $296.40 | 🟢 +2.0% | $45.90 | $45.50 | 🟢 +0.9% | $0.22 | $0.18 | 🟢 +22.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $317.50 | $303.40 | 🟢 +4.6% | $47.40 | $46.80 | 🟢 +1.3% | $0.24 | $0.20 | 🟢 +20.0% |
| FY 2024 | $1,231.00 | $1,211.20 | 🟢 +1.6% | $189.20 | $186.90 | 🟢 +1.2% | $0.93 | $0.84 | 🟢 +10.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $323.90 | $318.70 | 🟢 +1.6% | $49.50 | $48.10 | 🟢 +2.9% | $0.17 | $0.19 | 🔴 -10.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $336.00 | $332.50 | 🟢 +1.0% | $53.20 | $52.70 | 🟢 +1.0% | $0.08 | $0.16 | 🔴 -50.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $329.70 | $328.00 | 🟢 +0.5% | $51.20 | $50.50 | 🟢 +1.4% | $0.16 | $0.14 | 🟢 +14.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $338.20 | $335.70 | 🟢 +0.7% | $51.10 | $50.10 | 🟢 +2.0% | $0.19 | $0.17 | 🟢 +11.8% |
| FY 2025 | $1,327.80 | $1,314.90 | 🟢 +1.0% | $205.00 | $201.40 | 🟢 +1.8% | $0.60 | $0.66 | 🔴 -9.1% |
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